{"id":9380,"date":"2025-09-17T21:09:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T00:09:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=9380"},"modified":"2025-09-17T21:09:04","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T00:09:04","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c09%ec%9b%94-17%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=9380","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(09\uc6d4 17\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" src=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/download-9.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9381\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\uc815\ubd80 2026\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \uc639\ud638<br>\uc815\ubd80\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58, \uc131\uc7a5\ub960, \ud658\uc728, \uc7ac\uc815 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc790\uc138\ud788 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<br>2026\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc5d0\ub294 GDP 5%\uac00 \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 2027\ub144\uacfc 2028\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uac19\uc740 \uc218\uce58\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.<br>2025\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 IMF \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 5.5%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ub0ae\uc740 5.4%\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc7ac\uc815 1\ucc28 \ud751\uc790\ub294 2025\ub144\uacfc 2026\ub144 \ubaa8\ub450 GDP\uc758 1.5%\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc774\uc804\uc758 1.6%\uc640 2.2%\ub97c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uac00\uc7a5 \ub208\uc5d0 \ub744\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \ucd94\uc815\uce58\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\ud604\uc7ac \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 1,446 \ud398\uc18c\ub85c, \uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uc815\ud55c 2027\ub144 \ub9d0 1,470 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4.<br>2025\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uc740 1,325 \ud398\uc18c, 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uc740 1,423 \ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub294\ub370, \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uc728\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\ub2e4.<br>\uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 7\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc791\uc131\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc9c0\uc218 \uc911\uc559\uac12\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<br>\uc7ac\uc815\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc18c\ub85c\ub294 \uac00\ubb44 (\ud604\uc7ac 40% \uae30\ub85d \uc911)\uacfc \uc720\uac00\uc640 \ub300\ub450\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \ubc1c\ud45c \ud6c4 \ucc44\uad8c, \uc8fc\uc2dd \ubc18\ub4f1<br>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae08\uc735 \uc790\uc0b0\uc740 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 2026\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc548\ub3c4\uac10\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<br>\uae00\ub85c\ubc8c\uacfc Bonar \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 3.4%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc885\ubaa9\uc740 4.2%\ub098 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub7f0 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0, \ud604\uc7ac \uc62c\ud574 \ub204\uc801 \uc2e4\uc801\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \ub450 \uc790\ub9bf\uc218 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc9c0\ubc30\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 1,200bp \ub3cc\ud30c<br>\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c 1,231bp\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud574, \uc791\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc600\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc815\uce58\uc801, \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc73c\ub85c 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 15\uc77c \ub3d9\uc548 333bp\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 \uc120\uac70 \ud328\ubc30 \uc774\ud6c4, 10\uc6d4 \ud658\uc728 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc744 \ud314\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\uc5d0\ub530\ub77c \uad6d\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc838, \ud558\ub8e8\uc5d0 8%\ub098 \ub418\ub294 91bp\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8\uc5d0\uc11c \ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c\uc640 \ubcfc\ub9ac\ube44\uc544 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc5d0 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \uc704\ud5d8\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uc774 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0, \ub192\uc740 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ubc1c\uc0dd\uc2dc\ud0a8\ub2e4.<br>\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 1,200bp\uac00 \ub118\uc5b4\uac00\uba74 \uc5f0 16.3%\uc758 \uc774\uc728\uc744 \uc9c0\ubd88\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\uc5f0\ucd08\uc5d0\ub294 2018\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\uc778 500bp \uc120\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec, \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcf5\uadc0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc778 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc77c\uc73c\ucf30\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\uc640\uad00\ub828 La Naci\u00f3n \uc2e0\ubb38\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc9c0\uae08\ubd80\ud130 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucc44\uad8c \ub9cc\uae30\ub9cc 6\ubc88 \ub3cc\uc544\uc628\ub2e4.<br>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubcf4\uc720\uc561 (68\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc744 \ub354\ud574\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub354 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<br>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc801\uc5b4\ub3c4 \ud658\uc728 \uc81c\ub3c4\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ub610 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558<br>\ucd5c\uadfc \uae08\uc735\uae30\uad00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc815\uae30\uc608\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uc774 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uac01 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc694\uad6c\ud55c \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc2dc\ud589\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubd80\ucd94\uaca8 \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ubbfc\uac04 \uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c 30~35\uc77c \uc9dc\ub9ac \uace0\uc561 \uc815\uae30\uc608\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0 49.94%, 100\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uc608\uae08\uc740 \uc5f0 44.63%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub838\ub2e4.<br>9\uc6d4 \ucd08\uc5d0\ub294 \uac01\uac01 67%\uc640 58.1%\uc600\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 \uc6d4\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uacc4\uc18d \uc55e\uc9c0\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ud604\uc7ac \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc758 \uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2.47~4.58% \uc0ac\uc774\uc774\uba70, \uc5f0\ub9ac\ub294 30~55% \uc0ac\uc774\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc99d\uad8c\uac70\ub798\uc18c \uc120\ubb3c\ud658\uc728 \uac70\ub798 \uc870\uac74 \uc644\ud654<br>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc99d\uad8c\uac70\ub798\uc18c\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\ud658\uc728\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud574, \uc5d0\uc774\uc804\ud2b8\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac70\ub798 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \ud655\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uac01 \uc5d0\uc774\uc804\ud2b8\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 100,000\uac74\uc758 \uacc4\uc57d \ud639\uc740 \ubbf8\uacb0\uc81c \uc57d\uc815\uc758 30%\ub098 \uadf8\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc791\uc740 \uae08\uc561\uc744 \uc6b4\uc601\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacc4\uc57d \ub2f9 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\uc561\uc740 132,800 \ud398\uc18c\uc774\uba70, \uc6d4 \uc870\uc815\uc561\uc740 0,05%\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc6b4\uc601 \ud55c\ub3c4\uac00 600\ub9cc \uacc4\uc57d\uc774\uba70, \uc77c\uc815\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc870\uac74\uacfc \ucd94\uac00 \uc99d\uac70\uae08\uc744 \ucda9\uc871\ud558\uba74 1,200\ub9cc \uacc4\uc57d\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.<br>\uac70\ub798\uc18c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud560\ub2f9\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uacbd\uc6b0 \ucd94\uac00 \ubcf4\uc7a5\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubb3c\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ud55c\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc815\ubd80, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uacfc \ucc44\ubb34 25\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uad50\ud658<br>\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uacb0\uc758\uc548 45\/2025\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc778 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad \ucc44\uad8c 25\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uacfc \uad50\ud658\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \uc815\ubd80 \uae30\uad00\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc44\ubb34\ub97c \uc5c6\uc560\ub294 \uc77c\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uc774 \uad50\ud658\uc5d0\ub294 9\uc6d4 30\uc77c \ub9cc\uae30\uc778 LECAP \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub294 9\uc6d4 26\uc77c (\uae08) \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\uc11c \uacf5\uc2dd\ud654 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\uc8fc \uc678\ucc44 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc18c\uc1a1 \uc885\uacb0<br>\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\uc8fc \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c\ub2e8\uc774 \uc81c\uae30\ud55c 2021\ub144 \ucc44\ubb34 \uac31\uc2e0 \uc870\uac74\uc758 \ub274\uc695 \ubc95\uc6d0 \uc18c\uc1a1\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud310\uacb0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\uc774 \ud310\uacb0\uacfc \ub3c5\uc77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uae30\ub41c \uc18c\uc1a1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ucc44\uad8c\ub2e8\uacfc \ud569\uc758\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub294 2016~2019\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 50\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c \uac31\uc2e0\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc9c0\ubc29 \uc7ac\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd80\ucc44 \ube44\uc911\uc740 \ub450 \ubc30\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<br>2021\ub144 \ucc44\ubb34\uac00 \uc7ac\uc815\uc758 97.66%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uae09 \uc77c\uc815 \uc870\uc815\uacfc \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\ucd5c\uadfc \ud569\uc758\ub85c \uc0ac\ubc95 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc758 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc744 \uc885\uc9c0\ubd80 \ucc0d\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\uc0b0\uc5c5\uacc4 7\uc6d4 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960 \uc62c\ud574 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc544<br>\uad6d\ub9bd\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad (INDEC)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 7\uc6d4 \uc124\ube44 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc740 58.2%\ub85c \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub294 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc545\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c 8\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d 60%\ub97c \ubc11\ub3c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc9c0\uc218\uac00 6\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 2.3% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44\ub85c\ub3c4 1.1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc124\ube44 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960\ub3c4 2024\ub144 7\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac10\uc18c\ud574, \uc791\ub144 11\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \uac10\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<br>7\uc6d4\uc740 \uae08\uc735 \ubcfc\uc548\uc815\uacfc \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud588\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7f0 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uacbd\uc0c9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, \uc774\ub294 8\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uc558\ub358 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \ud654\ud559, \uc11d\uc720 \uc815\uc81c, \uc74c\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488, \uae30\ucd08 \uae08\uc18d \uc0b0\uc5c5, \uc81c\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \uc218\ucd9c\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc5c5\uc885\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28, 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