{"id":3965,"date":"2024-07-07T14:24:49","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T17:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=3965"},"modified":"2024-07-07T14:24:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-07T17:24:50","slug":"%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=3965","title":{"rendered":"\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/santiago-bausili-stock-1714409-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3966\" style=\"width:793px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/santiago-bausili-stock-1714409-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/santiago-bausili-stock-1714409-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/santiago-bausili-stock-1714409-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/santiago-bausili-stock-1714409.jpg 1140w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uac00 \uc2b9\uc778\ub41c \ud6c4, \uae4c\ubfcc\ub610 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7a5\uad00\uacfc \ubc14\uc6b0\uc2e4\ub9ac \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 2\ub2e8\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>*\uc7ac\uc815 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc131 (\uc7ac\uc815 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589 \uc81c\ub85c)<br>*\ub0b4\ubd80 \ubc1c\ud589 \uc81c\ub85c : \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc57d 17\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uae30\uace0, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\uc0c1\ud654\uae30\uae08 (LRM)\uc744 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774\uc790\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589.<br>\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 LRM \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uac1c\uc785\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc815\ud560 \uc608\uc815.<br>*\uacf5\uacf5\uc99d\uad8c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubd80\uc5ec\ud55c \ud48b \uc635\uc158 \uc6b4\uc601\uc740 \ubcc0\uacbd\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c.<br>*\ub9e4\uc6d4 2%\uc758 \ud658\uc728 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ud06c\ub864\ub9c1 \ud398\uadf8 \uc720\uc9c0.<br>*Pa\u00eds \uc138\uae08 17.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 7.5%\ub85c \uc778\ud558. \uc2dc\ud589\uc740 8\uc6d4 \ud639\uc740 9\uc6d4.<br>*\uc218\uc785 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0 \uc545\ud654.<br>\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc57d\ud654.<br>*\ud658\uc728 \uaddc\uc81c \uc720\uc9c0.<br>*\uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc811\uadfc \uc81c\ud55c \ubc0f \ubcc0\uacbd, \ud574\uc81c, \uc790\ubcf8 \ud1b5\uc81c \uc720\uc9c0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ub9dd\uc744 \ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>*\uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uacfc \uae08\uc735\ud658\uc728 1,400 \ud398\uc18c \ub3cc\ud30c.<br>*\ucc44\uad8c \ud558\ub77d. AL41D 4.81%, GD46D 4.05% \uac01\uac01 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9d0.<br>*\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 57bp (3.9%) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 1513bp \uae30\ub85d.<br>*\ud574\uc678 \uc8fc\uac00 9%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \uaddc\uc81c\uc640 \ud06c\ub864\ub9c1 \ud398\uadf8\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uace0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc5b4 \ucca0\ud3d0\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud588\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45\uc740, 5\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ubbfc\uac04\ud22c\uc790\ub97c \ub298\ub9ac\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 &#8220;\uc808\uba78&#8221; \uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud558\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0\uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uae4c\ubfcc\ub610 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7a5\uad00\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc218\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 2024\ub144 \uc815\ubd80 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 2025\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc744 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \uc758\ud68c\uc5d0 \uc81c\ucd9c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2024\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd<br>*\uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728 1,016 \ud398\uc18c<br>*GDP 3.5% \ud558\ub77d<br>*\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5f0 130%<br>*\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0 219\uc5b5 1800\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud751\uc790<br>*Pa\u00eds \uc138\uae08 \ud3d0\uc9c0\ub85c, \uc138\uc218 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc740 2024\ub144 GDP \ub300\ube44 21.61%\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 21.16%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9d0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Panorama Econ\u00f3mico<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Luego de la aprobaci\u00f3n de la Ley de Bases y el Paquete Fiscal, el Ministro de Econom\u00eda, Luis Caputo y el presidente del Banco Central, Santiago Bausili, presentaron los lineamientos de la nueva segunda fase del programa:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Continuidad del ancla fiscal (emisi\u00f3n cero por motivos fiscales).<br>Emisi\u00f3n end\u00f3gena cero: El BCRA reemplazar\u00e1 los pasivos (el resto de los pasivos remunerados, unos AR $17 billones) por Letras de Regulaci\u00f3n Monetaria (LRM) emitidas por el Tesoro con tasa de inter\u00e9s flotante. Adem\u00e1s, el BCRA fijar\u00e1 la tasa de inter\u00e9s de pol\u00edtica monetaria interviniendo en el mercado de LRM. La operatoria de puts otorgados por el BCRA sobre t\u00edtulos p\u00fablicos en cartera de los bancos se mantiene sin cambios.<br>Mantenimiento del crawling peg del 2% mensual. P\u00e9rdida de capacidad de acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas.<br>Mantenimiento del blend cambiario (80:20) para exportadores (sin especificaci\u00f3n de fecha de expiraci\u00f3n).<br>Reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS del 17,5% al 7,5% en agosto o septiembre, cuando empiece a tener efecto el paquete fiscal recientemente aprobado. Las importaciones van a subir reduciendo el saldo comercial y debilitando la acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas.<br>Continuidad del cepo. Restricciones para el acceso al mercado de cambios oficial y controles de capitales sin cambios ni fecha para su levantamiento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Frente a este anunci\u00f3 el mercado no reaccion\u00f3 de manera positiva:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El d\u00f3lar libre y los financieros superaron los $1400.<br>Los bonos del \u00faltimo canje de deuda operaron en terreno negativo, en todas sus legislaciones y vencimientos. Los Bonares cayeron 4,81% (AL41D) y los Globales, hasta 4,05% (GD46D). Esto impact\u00f3 en el riesgo pa\u00eds, indicador que el lunes avanz\u00f3 57 unidades y se posicion\u00f3 en los 1513 puntos b\u00e1sicos (+3,9%).<br>Las acciones cayeron hasta 9% en el exterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En parte el mercado esperaba un levantamiento del cepo y cree que el crawling peg de 2% mensual es insostenible y dificulta engrosar las reservas. En definitiva, parece no estar convencido de que el esquema actual de pol\u00edtica \u2013y ciertas decisiones como la baja de tasas de mayo\u2013, sea suficiente para lograr lo que se busca: un fuerte impulso a la inversi\u00f3n privada y el \u201caniquilamiento\u201d de la inflaci\u00f3n.<br>Adem\u00e1s, el ministro de Econom\u00eda, Luis Caputo, envi\u00f3 al Congreso un anticipo del Presupuesto 2025 con las proyecciones del Gobierno para 2024 de las principales variables macroecon\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indicador<br>Proyecci\u00f3n 2024<br>Dolar oficial<br>$1016<br>PBI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>3,5%<br>Inflaci\u00f3n<br>130% interanual<br>Balanza Comercial<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>USD 21.918 millones<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por \u00faltimo, la presi\u00f3n tributaria pasar\u00eda de 21,61% del PIB en el a\u00f1o 2024 a 21,16% en el a\u00f1o 2025, como consecuencia de la finalizaci\u00f3n de la vigencia del impuesto PAIS.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uac00 \uc2b9\uc778\ub41c \ud6c4, \uae4c\ubfcc\ub610 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7a5\uad00\uacfc \ubc14\uc6b0\uc2e4\ub9ac \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 2\ub2e8\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.*\uc7ac\uc815 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc131 (\uc7ac\uc815 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589 \uc81c\ub85c)*\ub0b4\ubd80 \ubc1c\ud589 \uc81c\ub85c : \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc57d 17\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uae30\uace0, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\uc0c1\ud654\uae30\uae08 (LRM)\uc744 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774\uc790\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589.\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 LRM \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uac1c\uc785\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc815\ud560 \uc608\uc815.*\uacf5\uacf5\uc99d\uad8c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubd80\uc5ec\ud55c \ud48b \uc635\uc158 \uc6b4\uc601\uc740 \ubcc0\uacbd\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c.*\ub9e4\uc6d4 2%\uc758 \ud658\uc728 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ud06c\ub864\ub9c1 \ud398\uadf8 \uc720\uc9c0.*Pa\u00eds \uc138\uae08 17.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 7.5%\ub85c \uc778\ud558. \uc2dc\ud589\uc740 8\uc6d4 \ud639\uc740 9\uc6d4.*\uc218\uc785 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0 \uc545\ud654.\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc57d\ud654.*\ud658\uc728 \uaddc\uc81c \uc720\uc9c0.*\uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc811\uadfc \uc81c\ud55c \ubc0f \ubcc0\uacbd, \ud574\uc81c, \uc790\ubcf8 \ud1b5\uc81c \uc720\uc9c0. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ub9dd\uc744 \ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.*\uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uacfc \uae08\uc735\ud658\uc728 1,400 \ud398\uc18c \ub3cc\ud30c.*\ucc44\uad8c \ud558\ub77d. AL41D 4.81%, GD46D 4.05% \uac01\uac01 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9d0.*\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 57bp (3.9%) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 1513bp \uae30\ub85d.*\ud574\uc678 \uc8fc\uac00 9%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \uaddc\uc81c\uc640 \ud06c\ub864\ub9c1 \ud398\uadf8\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uace0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc5b4 \ucca0\ud3d0\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud588\uc5c8\ub2e4.\ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45\uc740, 5\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ubbfc\uac04\ud22c\uc790\ub97c \ub298\ub9ac\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 &#8220;\uc808\uba78&#8221; \uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud558\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0\uc788\ub2e4. \uae4c\ubfcc\ub610 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7a5\uad00\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc218\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 2024\ub144 \uc815\ubd80 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 2025\ub144 \uc608\uc0b0\uc548\uc744 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \uc758\ud68c\uc5d0 \uc81c\ucd9c\ud588\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd*\uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728 1,016 \ud398\uc18c*GDP 3.5% \ud558\ub77d*\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5f0 130%*\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0 219\uc5b5 1800\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud751\uc790*Pa\u00eds \uc138\uae08 \ud3d0\uc9c0\ub85c, \uc138\uc218 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc740 2024\ub144 GDP \ub300\ube44 21.61%\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 21.16%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9d0 Panorama Econ\u00f3mico Luego de la aprobaci\u00f3n de la Ley de Bases y el Paquete Fiscal, el Ministro de Econom\u00eda, Luis Caputo y el presidente del Banco Central, Santiago Bausili, presentaron los lineamientos de la nueva segunda fase del programa: Continuidad del ancla fiscal (emisi\u00f3n cero por motivos fiscales).Emisi\u00f3n end\u00f3gena cero: El BCRA reemplazar\u00e1 los pasivos (el resto de los pasivos remunerados, unos AR $17 billones) por Letras de Regulaci\u00f3n Monetaria (LRM) emitidas por el Tesoro con tasa de inter\u00e9s flotante. Adem\u00e1s, el BCRA fijar\u00e1 la tasa de inter\u00e9s de pol\u00edtica monetaria interviniendo en el mercado de LRM. La operatoria de puts otorgados por el BCRA sobre t\u00edtulos p\u00fablicos en cartera de los bancos se mantiene sin cambios.Mantenimiento del crawling peg del 2% mensual. P\u00e9rdida de capacidad de acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas.Mantenimiento del blend cambiario (80:20) para exportadores (sin especificaci\u00f3n de fecha de expiraci\u00f3n).Reducci\u00f3n del impuesto PAIS del 17,5% al 7,5% en agosto o septiembre, cuando empiece a tener efecto el paquete fiscal recientemente aprobado. Las importaciones van a subir reduciendo el saldo comercial y debilitando la acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas.Continuidad del cepo. Restricciones para el acceso al mercado de cambios oficial y controles de capitales sin cambios ni fecha para su levantamiento. Frente a este anunci\u00f3 el mercado no reaccion\u00f3 de manera positiva: El d\u00f3lar libre y los financieros superaron los $1400.Los bonos del \u00faltimo canje de deuda operaron en terreno negativo, en todas sus legislaciones y vencimientos. Los Bonares cayeron 4,81% (AL41D) y los Globales, hasta 4,05% (GD46D). Esto impact\u00f3 en el riesgo pa\u00eds, indicador que el lunes avanz\u00f3 57 unidades y se posicion\u00f3 en los 1513 puntos b\u00e1sicos (+3,9%).Las acciones cayeron hasta 9% en el exterior. En parte el mercado esperaba un levantamiento del cepo y cree que el crawling peg de 2% mensual es insostenible y dificulta engrosar las reservas. En definitiva, parece no estar convencido de que el esquema actual de pol\u00edtica \u2013y ciertas decisiones como la baja de tasas de mayo\u2013, sea suficiente para lograr lo que se busca: un fuerte impulso a la inversi\u00f3n privada y el \u201caniquilamiento\u201d de la inflaci\u00f3n.Adem\u00e1s, el ministro de Econom\u00eda, Luis Caputo, envi\u00f3 al Congreso un anticipo del Presupuesto 2025 con las proyecciones del Gobierno para 2024 de las principales variables macroecon\u00f3micas. IndicadorProyecci\u00f3n 2024Dolar oficial$1016PBI Por \u00faltimo, la presi\u00f3n tributaria pasar\u00eda de 21,61% del PIB en el a\u00f1o 2024 a 21,16% en el a\u00f1o 2025, como consecuencia de la finalizaci\u00f3n de la vigencia del impuesto PAIS.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,23,25,61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias","category-news","category-noticias-argentina","category-informes-economicos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3965"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3965\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3967,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3965\/revisions\/3967"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}