{"id":3776,"date":"2024-06-19T15:38:40","date_gmt":"2024-06-19T18:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=3776"},"modified":"2024-06-19T15:40:47","modified_gmt":"2024-06-19T18:40:47","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-6%ec%9b%94-19%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=3776","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c (6\uc6d4 19\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. \uae08\uc735 \ubc0f \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790, \uc5b8\uc81c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560\uae4c ?
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 5\uc6d4 \uae08\uc735 \uc218\uc9c0 \ud751\uc790\uc640 \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790\uac00 \uac01\uac01 1\uc870 1,800\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc640 2\uc870 3\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc5d0\ub530\ub77c \uc62c\ud574 \uccab 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38\uc740 GDP\uc758 1%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud070 \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, GDP\uc758 0.4% \uae08\uc735 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    5\uc6d4\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 4\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \ub0a9\ubd80 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc9c0\ub09c 2008\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uae08\uc735 \ud751\uc790\ub294 \ucc98\uc74c\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0 \uc2b9\uc778 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \uba48\ucd9c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.
    \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc801\uc790\ub294 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751
    \uae08\uc735 \ubc0f \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc790, \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 5%\uac00 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.
    \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 1.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 MERVAL \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1.6% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728
    \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c 1,300 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88\uc8fc \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\uc778\ub41c \ud6c4, \ud558\uc6d0\uc5d0 \uc1a1\ubd80\ub41c \uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc7c1\uc810\uc740 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\uacbd\ub41c \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138\uc640 \uac1c\uc778 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc138\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc218\uc815\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc640\uad00\ub828 \u00c1mbito Financiero\uc9c0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc774 1,200 \ud398\uc18c\uac00 \uc801\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.
    \ub354\uc774\uc0c1 \uc624\ub97c \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uac1c\uc778 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc138 \uc778\ud558 \ubd88\ubc1c, \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ud751\uc790 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ucc44\ubb34 \uac31\uc2e0\uc5d0 \uc88b\uc740 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc774 \ub420\uac83\uc774\ub2e4. (LECAP \ub4f1 \ucc44\uad8c)
    \ub610 \ucd5c\uc120\uc758 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uc544\ub2d0\uc9c0\ub77c\ub3c4 \ubbfc\uc601\ud654 \uacc4\ud68d\uc740 \uacb0\uad6d \uc9c4\uc804\ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, IMF\uc640 \ud569\uc758\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc6d0\ud558\ub294 150\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec\uc740 \ud798\ub4e4\uc9c0\ub9cc, 80~100\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec\uc740 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728\uacfc \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc774 40%\ub098 \ucc28\uc774\ub098\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561
    \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc774 300\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4.
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 8,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \uc774\ubc88\ub2ec \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 1\uc5b5 8,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uad6c\ub9e4\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ucd1d \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 299\uc5b5 5,600\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \ube14\ub80c\ub4dc \ud658\uc728 \ucca0\ud3d0 ?
    IMF \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 80% \uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728\uacfc 20% CCL \ud658\uc728\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub418\uc5b4, \uc218\ucd9c \uacb0\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9 \uc911\uc778, \ube14\ub80c\ub4dc \ud658\uc728\uc758 \ucca0\ud3d0\ub97c \uc57d\uc18d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub07c\ub974\ub178 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc7a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc81c\ub3c4 \ubcc0\uacbd\uc744 \uac70\ubd80\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc704\ud5d8
    IMF \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ucc2c\uc0ac\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, “\uc678\ubd80 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uc5b4\ub835\uace0, \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\uac00 \uae38\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud558\uace0, \uacbd\uc81c \uacc4\ud68d \uc2dc\ud589\uc744 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc218 \uc788\ub2e4”\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud1b5\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uc22b\uc790\uac00 \uc774\ub97c \ub9d0\ud574\uc900\ub2e4.
    IMF\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uc62c\ud574 8.6% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 2024\ub144 8.2%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. \uae08\uc735 \ubc0f \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790, \uc5b8\uc81c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560\uae4c ?
      \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 5\uc6d4 \uae08\uc735 \uc218\uc9c0 \ud751\uc790\uc640 \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790\uac00 \uac01\uac01 1\uc870 1,800\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc640 2\uc870 3\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uc774\uc5d0\ub530\ub77c \uc62c\ud574 \uccab 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38\uc740 GDP\uc758 1%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud070 \uc77c\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, GDP\uc758 0.4% \uae08\uc735 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
      5\uc6d4\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 4\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc88b\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c8\ub2e4.
      \uc774 \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \ub0a9\ubd80 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uc9c0\ub09c 2008\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 5\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uae08\uc735 \ud751\uc790\ub294 \ucc98\uc74c\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0 \uc2b9\uc778 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \uba48\ucd9c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.
      \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc801\uc790\ub294 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751
      \uae08\uc735 \ubc0f \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc790, \uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 5%\uac00 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.
      \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 1.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 MERVAL \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1.6% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728
      \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c 1,300 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88\uc8fc \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2b9\uc778\ub41c \ud6c4, \ud558\uc6d0\uc5d0 \uc1a1\ubd80\ub41c \uae30\ubcf8\ubc95\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub97c \ucc98\ub9ac\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uc7c1\uc810\uc740 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\uacbd\ub41c \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138\uc640 \uac1c\uc778 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc138\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc218\uc815\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uc774\uc640\uad00\ub828 \u00c1mbito Financiero\uc9c0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc774 1,200 \ud398\uc18c\uac00 \uc801\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.
      \ub354\uc774\uc0c1 \uc624\ub97c \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uc7ac\uc815 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uac1c\uc778 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc138 \uc778\ud558 \ubd88\ubc1c, \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ud751\uc790 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \uacc4\uc18d \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ucc44\ubb34 \uac31\uc2e0\uc5d0 \uc88b\uc740 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc774 \ub420\uac83\uc774\ub2e4. (LECAP \ub4f1 \ucc44\uad8c)
      \ub610 \ucd5c\uc120\uc758 \ubc29\ubc95\uc740 \uc544\ub2d0\uc9c0\ub77c\ub3c4 \ubbfc\uc601\ud654 \uacc4\ud68d\uc740 \uacb0\uad6d \uc9c4\uc804\ub420 \uac83\uc774\uba70, IMF\uc640 \ud569\uc758\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
      \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc6d0\ud558\ub294 150\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec\uc740 \ud798\ub4e4\uc9c0\ub9cc, 80~100\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec\uc740 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.
      \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728\uacfc \uc2dc\uc911\ud658\uc728\uc774 40%\ub098 \ucc28\uc774\ub098\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561
      \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc774 300\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4.
      \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 8,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc600\ub2e4.
      \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \uc774\ubc88\ub2ec \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 1\uc5b5 8,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uad6c\ub9e4\ud588\ub2e4.
      \ucd1d \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 299\uc5b5 5,600\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. \ube14\ub80c\ub4dc \ud658\uc728 \ucca0\ud3d0 ?
      IMF \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 80% \uc815\ubd80\ud658\uc728\uacfc 20% CCL \ud658\uc728\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub418\uc5b4, \uc218\ucd9c \uacb0\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9 \uc911\uc778, \ube14\ub80c\ub4dc \ud658\uc728\uc758 \ucca0\ud3d0\ub97c \uc57d\uc18d\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub07c\ub974\ub178 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc7a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uc81c\ub3c4 \ubcc0\uacbd\uc744 \uac70\ubd80\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    6. \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \uc704\ud5d8
      IMF \uad00\uacc4\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ucc2c\uc0ac\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, “\uc678\ubd80 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uc5b4\ub835\uace0, \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\uac00 \uae38\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud558\uace0, \uacbd\uc81c \uacc4\ud68d \uc2dc\ud589\uc744 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc218 \uc788\ub2e4”\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4.
      \ud1b5\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uc22b\uc790\uac00 \uc774\ub97c \ub9d0\ud574\uc900\ub2e4.
      IMF\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uc62c\ud574 8.6% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.
      \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 2024\ub144 8.2%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Las Claves de Hoy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Super\u00e1vit financiero y primario, \u00bfhasta cu\u00e1ndo? Econom\u00eda anunci\u00f3 que durante mayo, nuevamente se registr\u00f3 un super\u00e1vit financiero y primario, de $1,18 billones y $2,3 billones, respectivamente. De esta manera, en los primeros cinco meses del a\u00f1o, el Sector P\u00fablico Nacional registra un super\u00e1vit primario superior al 1% del PBI y un super\u00e1vit financiero de 0,4% del PBI. Los datos de mayo muestran una mejor performance que la lograda en abril. Buena parte de este resultado se debe a la recaudaci\u00f3n del Impuesto a las Ganancias del mes pasado. Desde 2008 que no se registraban cinco meses consecutivos de super\u00e1vit financiero. Sin embargo, el propio presidente Javier Milei se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u201cestamos eliminando la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d aunque afirm\u00f3 que en junio habr\u00e1 una pausa \u201cpor culpa de la pol\u00edtica\u201d, en relaci\u00f3n a la demora en la aprobaci\u00f3n de la Ley de Bases y paquete fiscal. \u201cAunque luego seguir\u00e1 su tendencia a la baja\u201d, complet\u00f3 el mandatario. Asimismo, admiti\u00f3 que en junio no habr\u00e1 d\u00e9ficit cero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Reacci\u00f3n del mercado. Ante el dato del super\u00e1vit primario y financiero, las acciones de compa\u00f1\u00edas argentinas que cotizan en Wall Street finalizaron con alzas de hasta 5%. En tanto, los bonos en d\u00f3lares concluyeron con mayor\u00eda de subas (hasta 1,3%). En el mercado local, el \u00edndice accionario S&P Merval retrocedi\u00f3 1,6%..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      D\u00f3lar informal, r\u00e9cord. Durante la jornada de ayer, el d\u00f3lar blue o informal alcanz\u00f3 un nuevo r\u00e9cord al llegar a los $1.300. El escenario pol\u00edtico no deja de afectar al plano econ\u00f3mico y esta semana se ver\u00e1 marcada por el tratamiento de la Ley de Bases y paquete fiscal en la C\u00e1mara de Diputados (tras su aprobaci\u00f3n en general en el Senado). Las dudas pasan por si se modificar\u00e1n o no los cambios planteados por los senadores en cuanto a Ganancias y Bienes Personales (claves para la recaudaci\u00f3n).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      En relaci\u00f3n a este punto, se\u00f1alamos en una nota publicada en \u00c1mbito Financiero: \u201cestimamos un piso de $1.200. No vemos que se dispare demasiado. A pesar de las dudas que se ven con el paquete fiscal, que no sale la baja de Bienes Personales y la suba de Ganancias, pensamos que los super\u00e1vits se van a seguir manteniendo y eso van a ser buenas noticias para todas las renovaciones las deudas (Lecaps, etc)\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Y completamos: \u201cTambi\u00e9n vemos, quiz\u00e1s no de la mejor manera, pero se va a terminar avanzando en un programa de privatizaciones y se va a llegar a un acuerdo con el Fondo. No vemos los USD15.000 millones que quiere el Gobierno, pero s\u00ed USD8.000\/USD10.000 millones de desembolso y eso ser\u00eda un incremento adicional en las reservas. No justificamos tener una brecha de 40% superior, en este contexto\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Las reservas orillan los USD30.000 millones. Ayer, el BCRA logr\u00f3 acumular USD82 millones tras su intervenci\u00f3n en el Mercado Libre de Cambios. De esta manera, en lo que va del mes, el acumulado alcanza los USD181 millones. En tanto, las reservas quedaron a escasos pasos de los USD30.000 millones, y cerraron en USD29.956 millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u00bfFin del \u201cd\u00f3lar blend\u201d? De acuerdo con un informe del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la Argentina se comprometi\u00f3 a eliminar el esquema de liquidaci\u00f3n de exportaciones bajo la modalidad \u201cd\u00f3lar blend\u201d, que permit\u00eda liquidar 80% de las divisas al precio oficial del d\u00f3lar y 20% al valor del CCL. Sin embargo, el Secretario de Finanzas Pablo Quirno desminti\u00f3 cambios en el actual esquema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Riesgo de recesi\u00f3n prolongada. Si bien las autoridades del FMI aplaudieron los resultados de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica del presidente Milei, advirtieron que \u201clas condiciones externas podr\u00edan volverse menos favorables y la recesi\u00f3n actual podr\u00eda volverse m\u00e1s prolongada, alimentando tensiones sociales y complicando la implementaci\u00f3n del programa\u201d. La evidencia de ciertos n\u00fameros es elocuente: el organismo internacional estima que este a\u00f1o el consumo caer\u00e1 8,6%. Y en relaci\u00f3n a la desocupaci\u00f3n la ubica en 8,2% para 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      \uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c Las Claves de Hoy Super\u00e1vit financiero y primario, \u00bfhasta cu\u00e1ndo? Econom\u00eda anunci\u00f3 que durante mayo, nuevamente se registr\u00f3 un super\u00e1vit financiero y primario, de $1,18 billones y $2,3 billones, respectivamente. De esta manera, en los primeros cinco meses del a\u00f1o, el Sector P\u00fablico Nacional registra un super\u00e1vit primario superior al 1% del PBI y un super\u00e1vit financiero de 0,4% del PBI. Los datos de mayo muestran una mejor performance que la lograda en abril. Buena parte de este resultado se debe a la recaudaci\u00f3n del Impuesto a las Ganancias del mes pasado. Desde 2008 que no se registraban cinco meses consecutivos de super\u00e1vit financiero. Sin embargo, el propio presidente Javier Milei se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u201cestamos eliminando la inflaci\u00f3n\u201d aunque afirm\u00f3 que en junio habr\u00e1 una pausa \u201cpor culpa de la pol\u00edtica\u201d, en relaci\u00f3n a la demora en la aprobaci\u00f3n de la Ley de Bases y paquete fiscal. \u201cAunque luego seguir\u00e1 su tendencia a la baja\u201d, complet\u00f3 el mandatario. Asimismo, admiti\u00f3 que en junio no habr\u00e1 d\u00e9ficit cero. Reacci\u00f3n del mercado. Ante el dato del super\u00e1vit primario y financiero, las acciones de compa\u00f1\u00edas argentinas que cotizan en Wall Street finalizaron con alzas de hasta 5%. En tanto, los bonos en d\u00f3lares concluyeron con mayor\u00eda de subas (hasta 1,3%). En el mercado local, el \u00edndice accionario S&P Merval retrocedi\u00f3 1,6%.. D\u00f3lar informal, r\u00e9cord. Durante la jornada de ayer, el d\u00f3lar blue o informal alcanz\u00f3 un nuevo r\u00e9cord al llegar a los $1.300. El escenario pol\u00edtico no deja de afectar al plano econ\u00f3mico y esta semana se ver\u00e1 marcada por el tratamiento de la Ley de Bases y paquete fiscal en la C\u00e1mara de Diputados (tras su aprobaci\u00f3n en general en el Senado). Las dudas pasan por si se modificar\u00e1n o no los cambios planteados por los senadores en cuanto a Ganancias y Bienes Personales (claves para la recaudaci\u00f3n). En relaci\u00f3n a este punto, se\u00f1alamos en una nota publicada en \u00c1mbito Financiero: \u201cestimamos un piso de $1.200. No vemos que se dispare demasiado. A pesar de las dudas que se ven con el paquete fiscal, que no sale la baja de Bienes Personales y la suba de Ganancias, pensamos que los super\u00e1vits se van a seguir manteniendo y eso van a ser buenas noticias para todas las renovaciones las deudas (Lecaps, etc)\u201d. Y completamos: \u201cTambi\u00e9n vemos, quiz\u00e1s no de la mejor manera, pero se va a terminar avanzando en un programa de privatizaciones y se va a llegar a un acuerdo con el Fondo. No vemos los USD15.000 millones que quiere el Gobierno, pero s\u00ed USD8.000\/USD10.000 millones de desembolso y eso ser\u00eda un incremento adicional en las reservas. No justificamos tener una brecha de 40% superior, en este contexto\u201d. Las reservas orillan los USD30.000 millones. Ayer, el BCRA logr\u00f3 acumular USD82 millones tras su intervenci\u00f3n en el Mercado Libre de Cambios. De esta manera, en lo que va del mes, el acumulado alcanza los USD181 millones. En tanto, las reservas quedaron a escasos pasos de los USD30.000 millones, y cerraron en USD29.956 millones. \u00bfFin del \u201cd\u00f3lar blend\u201d? De acuerdo con un informe del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la Argentina se comprometi\u00f3 a eliminar el esquema de liquidaci\u00f3n de exportaciones bajo la modalidad \u201cd\u00f3lar blend\u201d, que permit\u00eda liquidar 80% de las divisas al precio oficial del d\u00f3lar y 20% al valor del CCL. Sin embargo, el Secretario de Finanzas Pablo Quirno desminti\u00f3 cambios en el actual esquema. Riesgo de recesi\u00f3n prolongada. Si bien las autoridades del FMI aplaudieron los resultados de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica del presidente Milei, advirtieron que \u201clas condiciones externas podr\u00edan volverse menos favorables y la recesi\u00f3n actual podr\u00eda volverse m\u00e1s prolongada, alimentando tensiones sociales y complicando la implementaci\u00f3n del programa\u201d. La evidencia de ciertos n\u00fameros es elocuente: el organismo internacional estima que este a\u00f1o el consumo caer\u00e1 8,6%. Y en relaci\u00f3n a la desocupaci\u00f3n la ubica en 8,2% para 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":3777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,23,25,61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias","category-news","category-noticias-argentina","category-informes-economicos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3776"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3778,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3776\/revisions\/3778"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}