{"id":15253,"date":"2026-09-28T15:43:57","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T18:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=15253"},"modified":"2026-09-28T15:43:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T18:43:59","slug":"%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9d-3-jp-morgan-%eb%b6%88%ea%b3%bc-%eb%82%98%ed%9d%98-%eb%a7%8c%ec%97%90-%ec%95%84%eb%a5%b4%ed%97%a8%ed%8b%b0%eb%82%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=15253","title":{"rendered":"[\uacbd\uc81c \uc18c\uc2dd 3] JP MORGAN, \ubd88\uacfc \ub098\ud758 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\uacbd &#8230; \uc774\uc81c\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc608\uc0c1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"299\" height=\"168\" src=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/images-61.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-15254\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JP Morgan, \ubd88\uacfc \ub098\ud758 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\uacbd\u2026\uc774\uc81c\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc608\uc0c1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">-\ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589 JP Morgan\uc740 \ub2f9\ucd08 2026\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 2.7% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\ub098, 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 1.5%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uc704\ucd95\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub9de\uc558\ub2e4. JP Morgan\uc740 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uae30\uc874 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 1.5%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uc704\ucd95\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd \uc218\uc815\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(INDEC)\uc774 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc628 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 2.9% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc57d 1% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 JP Morgan\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub098\uc05c \uacb0\uacfc\uc600\ub2e4.<br>\ud2b9\ud788 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc14\ub010 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub2e4. \ubd88\uacfc \ub098\ud758 \ub9cc\uc5d0 JP Morgan\uc740 3%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc14\uafe8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacf5\uc2dd \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub410\uace0, \ubbfc\uac04 \ucee8\uc124\ud305\uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub0b4\ub193\uc558\uc73c\uba70 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ed\uc2dc \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">JP Morgan, 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815<br>\ubbf8\uad6d\uacc4 \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589 JP Morgan\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c \ub4a4 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 2026\ub144 1.5% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc \ucd08\uc5d0 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub358 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 1.2%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uce58\ub2e4.<br>JP Morgan\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc62c\ud574 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900 0.6% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\ub9cc\uc57d 7\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub610\ub2e4\uc2dc \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc704\ucd95\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \ub450 \ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc18d \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \u2018\uae30\uc220\uc801 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4(recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica)\u2019\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub978\ub2e4.<br>JP Morgan\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub098\ube74\ub2e4. INDEC\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uac10\uc18c \ud3ed\uc740 JP Morgan\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucda9\uaca9<br>INDEC \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 2025\ub144 7\uc6d4\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 1.4% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc5c5\uc885\uc774 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\uac8c \uac10\uc18c\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0c1\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 5.1% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uace0 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 4.6% \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub450 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc774 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.<br>\ubc18\uba74 \uc131\uc7a5\ud55c \uc5c5\uc885\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uad11\uc5c5 \ubc0f \ucc44\uc11d\uc5c5\uc740 8.4% \uc131\uc7a5\ud588\uace0 \ub18d\uc5c5\u00b7\ucd95\uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uc218\ub835\u00b7\uc784\uc5c5\uc740 0.7% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\ub610\ud55c 7\uc6d4 \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc218\uc900\uc740 2025\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4.<br>JP Morgan\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd \uc218\uc815\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc62c\ud574 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.<br>\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ubbf8\uac94 \ud0a4\uac94(Miguel Kiguel)\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2ec\uac01\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba74\uc11c 3\ubd84\uae30\uac00 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. Econviews \ub300\ud45c\uc778 \ud0a4\uac94\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 1%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uac00\ube0c\ub9ac\uc5d8 \uce74\ub9c8\ub1e8(Gabriel Caama\u00f1o)\uac00 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ucee8\uc124\ud305\uc5c5\uccb4 Outlier \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud574 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 1.9%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. Analytica, LCG, PXQ \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubbfc\uac04 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uae30\uad00\ub4e4\ub3c4 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc774 8\uc6d4 \uc790\ub8cc\ub97c \ud1a0\ub300\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uac00\uc7a5 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae30\ub300\uc870\uc0ac(REM)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 2.1%\uc600\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc791\uc131\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc218\uc815\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud65c\ub825\uc744 \uc783\uc740 \uc774\uc720<br>\ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc131 \uc790\uccb4\ub3c4 \ud604\uc7ac \ub17c\uc758\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc694\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4.<br>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \uad11\uc5c5 \uac19\uc740 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uace0 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub4e4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd80\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ubc18\uba74 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \uc0c1\uc5c5\uacfc \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc774\ub2e4. \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc740 \uc7ac\uc815\uade0\ud615\uacfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uc0bc\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc6a9\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uce74\ub9c8\ub1e8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ed\ub3d9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc784\uae08 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ub354 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc838\uc57c \ud558\uace0 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc5ec\uac74\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub294 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uc784\uae08\ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud55c\uc120\uacfc \uc740\ud589 \uc9c0\uae09\uc900\ube44\uae08\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\ud0a4\uac94\uc740 \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucdc4\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \ud604 \uacbd\uc81c \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ud3ec\uae30\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \ud65c\uc131\ud654\ud560 \uac83\uc778\uac00 \ud558\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc7ac\uc815\uade0\ud615\uacfc \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc989 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \ub454\ud654 \uacfc\uc815\uc744 \ud6fc\uc190\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud65c\uc131\ud654\ud560 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uacfc\uc81c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc14\uafbc \ud55c \uc8fc<br>\ucd5c\uadfc \uba70\uce60\uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<br>\uc6d4\uc694\uc77c JP Morgan\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 2.7% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc218\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 2027\ub144 \uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \ud22c\uc790\uc801\uaca9\ub4f1\uae09\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub0b4\ub193\uc558\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c INDEC\ub294 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 2.9% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae08\uc694\uc77c JP Morgan\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uacc4\uc0b0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c 2026\ub144 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 1.5%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd94\uace0, \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uc704\ucd95\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uac19\uc740 \ub0a0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 609\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc9c0\ub09c 4\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ub93c\ub514\uac70 \ub3c8\ubd80\uc2dc(Rudiger Dornbusch)\uc758 \uc720\uba85\ud55c \ub9d0\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \uc798 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\u201c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc77c\uc774 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud588\ub358 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \uac78\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc77c\ub2e8 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uba74 \uc0dd\uac01\ud588\ub358 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub41c\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>JP Morgan, \ubd88\uacfc \ub098\ud758 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\uacbd\u2026\uc774\uc81c\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc608\uc0c1 -\ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589 JP Morgan\uc740 \ub2f9\ucd08 2026\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 2.7% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\ub098, 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 1.5%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uc704\ucd95\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub9de\uc558\ub2e4. JP Morgan\uc740 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uae30\uc874 2.7%\uc5d0\uc11c 1.5%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uc704\ucd95\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd \uc218\uc815\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(INDEC)\uc774 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub098\uc628 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 2.9% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc57d 1% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 JP Morgan\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub098\uc05c \uacb0\uacfc\uc600\ub2e4.\ud2b9\ud788 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc14\ub010 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub2e4. \ubd88\uacfc \ub098\ud758 \ub9cc\uc5d0 JP Morgan\uc740 3%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc14\uafe8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacf5\uc2dd \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub410\uace0, \ubbfc\uac04 \ucee8\uc124\ud305\uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub0b4\ub193\uc558\uc73c\uba70 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ed\uc2dc \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. JP Morgan, 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ubbf8\uad6d\uacc4 \ud22c\uc790\uc740\ud589 JP Morgan\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uacf5\uac1c\ub41c \ub4a4 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 2026\ub144 1.5% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc \ucd08\uc5d0 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub358 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 1.2%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uce58\ub2e4.JP Morgan\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 4% \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc62c\ud574 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900 0.6% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.\ub9cc\uc57d 7\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub610\ub2e4\uc2dc \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc704\ucd95\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \ub450 \ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc18d \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \u2018\uae30\uc220\uc801 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4(recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica)\u2019\ub77c\uace0 \ubd80\ub978\ub2e4.JP Morgan\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub098\ube74\ub2e4. INDEC\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uac10\uc18c \ud3ed\uc740 JP Morgan\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucda9\uaca9INDEC \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 2025\ub144 7\uc6d4\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 1.4% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc5c5\uc885\uc774 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\uac8c \uac10\uc18c\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0c1\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 5.1% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uace0 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 4.6% \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub450 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc774 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.\ubc18\uba74 \uc131\uc7a5\ud55c \uc5c5\uc885\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uad11\uc5c5 \ubc0f \ucc44\uc11d\uc5c5\uc740 8.4% \uc131\uc7a5\ud588\uace0 \ub18d\uc5c5\u00b7\ucd95\uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uc218\ub835\u00b7\uc784\uc5c5\uc740 0.7% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.\ub610\ud55c 7\uc6d4 \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc218\uc900\uc740 2025\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4.JP Morgan\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd \uc218\uc815\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc62c\ud574 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ubbf8\uac94 \ud0a4\uac94(Miguel Kiguel)\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2ec\uac01\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba74\uc11c 3\ubd84\uae30\uac00 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc2e4\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. Econviews \ub300\ud45c\uc778 \ud0a4\uac94\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 1%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.\uac00\ube0c\ub9ac\uc5d8 \uce74\ub9c8\ub1e8(Gabriel Caama\u00f1o)\uac00 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \ucee8\uc124\ud305\uc5c5\uccb4 Outlier \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud574 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 1.9%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. Analytica, LCG, PXQ \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubbfc\uac04 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5f0\uad6c\uae30\uad00\ub4e4\ub3c4 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc774 8\uc6d4 \uc790\ub8cc\ub97c \ud1a0\ub300\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uac00\uc7a5 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae30\ub300\uc870\uc0ac(REM)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 2.1%\uc600\ub2e4.\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc791\uc131\ub41c \uac83\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc218\uc815\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud65c\ub825\uc744 \uc783\uc740 \uc774\uc720\ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \uad6c\uc131 \uc790\uccb4\ub3c4 \ud604\uc7ac \ub17c\uc758\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc694\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4.\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \uad11\uc5c5 \uac19\uc740 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uace0 \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub4e4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd80\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\ubc18\uba74 \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \uc0c1\uc5c5\uacfc \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc774\ub2e4. \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc740 \uc7ac\uc815\uade0\ud615\uacfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uc0bc\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uacfc \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc6a9\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\uce74\ub9c8\ub1e8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ed\ub3d9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ubb34\uc5c7\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc784\uae08 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ub354 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc838\uc57c \ud558\uace0 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc5ec\uac74\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.\uadf8\ub294 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uc784\uae08\ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud55c\uc120\uacfc \uc740\ud589 \uc9c0\uae09\uc900\ube44\uae08\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud560 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