{"id":14993,"date":"2026-09-18T20:37:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T23:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=14993"},"modified":"2026-09-18T20:37:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T23:37:11","slug":"%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9d-2-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-10%eb%85%84%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9-%ec%8b%a0%ed%9d%a5%ea%b5%ad%ec%97%90%eb%8a%94-%ec%a0%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=14993","title":{"rendered":"[\uacbd\uc81c \uc18c\uc2dd 2] \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc5d0\ub294 \uc804\uc774\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4 (?)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"301\" height=\"168\" src=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/images-38.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-14994\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc5d0\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc804\uc774\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4(?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ucd08 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44(UST10)\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960, \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \u2018\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\u2019\uac00 \uc5f0 5% \uc120\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc804\uac1c\uc640 \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc0f \uc815\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc694\uc778\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \uae30\uac04 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574 \uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 5%\ub77c\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.<br>2026\ub144 UST10 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc5f0 3.94%\ub85c \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 99bp(0.99%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\ud55c\ud3b8 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\ub825 \ucda9\ub3cc\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 2026\ub144 \uc911 \uc778\ud558\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce5c \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub4a4\uc9d1\ud614\ub2e4. \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub410\ub2e4.<br>\uc7a5\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.00%\ub85c 25bp(0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1\ud558\uae30\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \ub354 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uacfc \uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BOE)\ub3c4 \uac01\uac01 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud3ed\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc55e\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4.<br>\ud604\uc7ac \uc138\uacc4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294, \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d\ub4e4\uc774 \uc548\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815 \ubc0f \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ucc44 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc778 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790\ub294 GDP\uc758 7.5%\uc774\uba70 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 GDP\uc758 3.3%\uc774\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\ub294 GDP\uc758 126%\ub97c \ub118\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 GDP\uc758 88%, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 GDP\uc758 204%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc815\ubd80 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790\ub97c \ucd95\uc18c\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 G7 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uad6d\uac00 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc694\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4.<br>\uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \uac1c\ubc1c\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ud22c\uc790\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub354\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc790\ubcf8\uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08 \ud655\ubcf4 \uacbd\uc7c1\ub3c4 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc704\ud5d8\uc758 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654<br>\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba74 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd80\ubb38\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc838 \uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4\ub2e4.<br>\uc62c\ud574 \ucd08\ubd80\ud130 \ubc14\ub85c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<br>\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba74 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc5d0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ubc18\ub300\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uc120\uc9c4\uad6d\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac74\uc804\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ucc44 \uad6c\uc870, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd \ub4f1\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \uc874\uc7ac\ud588\ub358 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc778\uacfc\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a8 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<br>\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 \ud574\ub2f9 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uac04\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.<br>\uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc804\uccb4\uc640 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8(LATAM) \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(UST10)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc989, \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uba85\ubaa9\uae08\ub9ac\uc778 UST10 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \uba85\ubaa9 \ucc28\uc785\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub9cc\ud07c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<br>\uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c 2026\ub144 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.<br>\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(UST10): 99bp \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc804\uccb4 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 62bp \ud558\ub77d \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8(LATAM) \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 127bp \ud558\ub77d \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 61bp \ud558\ub77d<br>\uc774\ub97c \uc2e4\uc81c \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uba74 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 28bp(0.28%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \ubc18\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 38bp(0.38%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589 \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4\ub85c \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \u2018\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\u2019\uac00 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \uac00\uc84c\ub358 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \uc783\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc778\uc2dd\uacfc\ub3c4 \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ubb3c\ub860 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc870\uc815 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ucd08\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub290\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uac00 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d<br>\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc5f0 3.94%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 5% \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 99bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.<br>\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.00%\ub85c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc545\uc7ac\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 127bp \ud558\ub77d\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\uace0\ub3c4 \ub0a8\uc558\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \uc804\uccb4\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 28bp \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<br>\ubc18\uba74 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc740 61bp\uc5d0 \uadf8\uccd0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\uace0, \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 38bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc5d0\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc804\uc774\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4(?) \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ucd08 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44(UST10)\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960, \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \u2018\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\u2019\uac00 \uc5f0 5% \uc120\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc804\uac1c\uc640 \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc0f \uc815\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4.\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc694\uc778\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \uae30\uac04 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud574 \uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 5%\ub77c\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.2026\ub144 UST10 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc5f0 3.94%\ub85c \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 99bp(0.99%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.\ud55c\ud3b8 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb34\ub825 \ucda9\ub3cc\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 2026\ub144 \uc911 \uc778\ud558\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce5c \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub4a4\uc9d1\ud614\ub2e4. \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub410\ub2e4.\uc7a5\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.\uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.00%\ub85c 25bp(0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1\ud558\uae30\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \ub354 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uacfc \uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BOE)\ub3c4 \uac01\uac01 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud3ed\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\uc0c1\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uba70, \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc55e\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4.\ud604\uc7ac \uc138\uacc4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294, \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d\ub4e4\uc774 \uc548\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815 \ubc0f \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ucc44 \ubb38\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc778 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790\ub294 GDP\uc758 7.5%\uc774\uba70 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 GDP\uc758 3.3%\uc774\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44\ub294 GDP\uc758 126%\ub97c \ub118\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 GDP\uc758 88%, \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 GDP\uc758 204%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4.\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub354\uc6b1 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc815\ubd80 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc790\ub97c \ucd95\uc18c\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 G7 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uad6d\uac00 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc694\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4.\uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \uac1c\ubc1c\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ud22c\uc790\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub354\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc790\ubcf8\uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08 \ud655\ubcf4 \uacbd\uc7c1\ub3c4 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc704\ud5d8\uc758 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba74 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd80\ubb38\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\ub3c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc838 \uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4\ub2e4.\uc62c\ud574 \ucd08\ubd80\ud130 \ubc14\ub85c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba74 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc5d0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70, \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ubc18\ub300\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\uc120\uc9c4\uad6d\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac74\uc804\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ucc44 \uad6c\uc870, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub354 \ub098\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd \ub4f1\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \uc874\uc7ac\ud588\ub358 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc778\uacfc\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a8 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 \ud574\ub2f9 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uac04\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.\uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc804\uccb4\uc640 \ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8(LATAM) \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(UST10)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.\uc989, \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uba85\ubaa9\uae08\ub9ac\uc778 UST10 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \uba85\ubaa9 \ucc28\uc785\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub9cc\ud07c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\uc9c0\ub09c 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c 2026\ub144 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(UST10): 99bp \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uc804\uccb4 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 62bp \ud558\ub77d \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8(LATAM) \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 127bp \ud558\ub77d \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4: 61bp \ud558\ub77d\uc774\ub97c \uc2e4\uc81c \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uba74 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 28bp(0.28%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \ubc18\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 38bp(0.38%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589 \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4\ub85c \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uae30\uc874\uc758 \u2018\ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\u2019\uac00 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \uac00\uc84c\ub358 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \uc783\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc778\uc2dd\uacfc\ub3c4 \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\ubb3c\ub860 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc870\uc815 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ucd08\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub290\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\ubcc4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\uac00 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc57d\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c \uc5f0 3.94%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 5% \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 99bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.\uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.00%\ub85c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc545\uc7ac\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\ud2b9\ud788 \uc911\ub0a8\ubbf8\uc758 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