{"id":14499,"date":"2026-08-28T18:53:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T21:53:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=14499"},"modified":"2026-08-28T18:53:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T21:53:05","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c08%ec%9b%94-28%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=14499","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(08\uc6d4 28\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uc815\ubd80 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30 \uc131\uacf5 \u2014 12\uc870 1,600\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c \uc870\ub2ec, \ucc28\ud658\uc728 96%
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 8\uc6d4 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \ud398\uc18c\ud654 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd1d 12\uc870 1,600\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc870\ub2ec\ud574 \ub9cc\uae30 \ub3c4\ub798 \ucc44\ubb34\uc758 95.96%\ub97c \ucc28\ud658\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc131\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc774 \uc811\uc218\ud55c \ucd1d \uc8fc\ubb38\uc561\uc740 13\uc870 1,800\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc218\uc694\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub2e4.
    \ud2b9\ud788 2026\ub144 11\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 LECAP(\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \ub2e8\uae30\uad6d\ucc44)\uc5d0 6\uc870 900\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uac00 \ubab0\ub824 \uc804\uccb4 \ub099\ucc30\uc561\uc758 \uac70\uc758 \uc808\ubc18\uc744 \ucc28\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2.19%\uc600\ub2e4.
    CER(\ubb3c\uac00\uc5f0\ub3d9) \ucc44\uad8c\uc5d0\ub294 8,300\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc5f0\ub3d9(d\u00f3lar linked) \ucc44\uad8c\uc5d0\ub294 4,200\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uac00 \ubc30\uc815\ub410\ub2e4.
    \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud53c\ud55c \uac83\uc740 2027\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ubc1c\ud589\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\uae09\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uc57d 10.5% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uac78\ub9bc\ub3cc\uc774 \ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc758\ubbf8: \uc774\ubc88 \uc785\ucc30\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ub2a5\ub825\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c\uc5d0 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 2027\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc815\uce58\u00b7\uacbd\uc81c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uad6d\ucc44 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218 509bp\ub85c \ud558\ub77d
    \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 5\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc28\uc775\uc2e4\ud604\uc73c\ub85c S&P Merval \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 0.8% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubc18\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\ucc44\uc778 Bonares\uc640 Globales\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 0.6% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c JP Morgan\uc774 \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 11bp \ud558\ub77d\ud55c 509bp\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uba70 \ub2e4\uc2dc 500bp\uc120\uc5d0 \uc811\uadfc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728 1,512\ud398\uc18c
    \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ud658\uc728 \uc6b4\uc6a9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc720\uc5f0\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uacf5\uc2dd \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2f9 1,512\ud398\uc18c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uc57d 26\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5f0\ub3d9\ucc44\uad8c \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\uc5b4 \ud658\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc99d\uac00\ud55c \uac83\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud604\uc7ac \ud658\uc728\uc740 \ud658\uc728\ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc778 1,876.5\ud398\uc18c\ubcf4\ub2e4 24% \uc774\uc0c1 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud658\uc728\uc740 MEP \ud658\uc728 1,536.73\ud398\uc18c,
    CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,600.35\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uacf5\uc2dd\ud658\uc728\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589, 8\uc6d4 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc778 9,300\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc785
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc740 \uc804\ub0a0 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 9,300\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc21c\ub9e4\uc785\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 8\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ud558\ub8e8 \uae30\uc900 \ucd5c\ub300 \ub9e4\uc785\uc561\uc774\ub2e4.
    8\uc6d4 \ub204\uc801 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc785\uc561\uc740 6\uc5b54,000\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec, 2026\ub144 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ub204\uc801 \ub9e4\uc785\uc561\uc740 139\uc5b56,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\ub3c4 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub3d9\uc548 7,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \ucd1d 508\uc5b56,000\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\ub9cc 8\uc6d4 \ud558\ub8e8 \ud3c9\uade0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc785\uc561\uc740 3,600\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c 5~7\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \ubc14\uce74 \ubb34\uc5d0\ub974\ud0c0 \uc11d\uc720, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc218\ucd9c\ud488\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\uc0c1
    7\uc6d4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 91\ub9cc6,200\ubc30\ub7f4\ub85c \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 17.2% \uc99d\uac00\ud55c \uaddc\ubaa8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 Vaca Muerta\uc758 \ube44\uc804\ud1b5 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 64\ub9cc3,100\ubc30\ub7f4\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 26.4% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \ub124\uc6b0\ucf04 \ubd84\uc9c0\uac00 \uc774\uc81c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc804\uccb4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc758 70% \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2f4\ub2f9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    1~7\uc6d4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\ucd9c\uc561\uc740 57\uc5b52,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44 59% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud2b9\ud788 7\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\ucd9c\uc740 10\uc5b52,000\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \ubb34\ub824 144.4% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c 2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720\uac00 \ub300\ub450 \ubd80\uc0b0\ubb3c\uc744 \uc81c\uce58\uace0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc218\ucd9c \ud488\ubaa9\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub2e4. \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub18d\ucd95\uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud574\uc628 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc678\ud654 \ud68d\ub4dd \uad6c\uc870\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0b0\uc5c5, \ud2b9\ud788 Vaca Muerta\uac00 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud575\uc2ec \uc678\ud654 \uacf5\uae09\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac \uc7a1\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \u2014 Jackson Hole\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec \uc9d1\uc911
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc7a5 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 Jackson Hole\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed) \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc5f0\uc124\uacfc \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \ubbf8\uad6d 30\ub144 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 5.208%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\ub294 3\uc8fc \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uac04 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 88.38\ub2ec\ub7ec, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\ub294 83.28\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    \uc885\ud569 \ud3c9\uac00
    \uc624\ub298 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \u2460 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30\uc758 96% \ucc28\ud658 \uc131\uacf5, \u2461 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 509bp \ud558\ub77d, \u2462 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc678\ud658 \ub9e4\uc785 \uc9c0\uc18d, \u2463 Vaca Muerta\uc758 \uc218\ucd9c \uae09\uc99d\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 12\uc870 1,600\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ub9cc\uae30\ub97c \ud070 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5c6\uc774 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \ucc28\ud658\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ubc88 \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\uc11c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 2026\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30\ucc44\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uacbd\uacc4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud604 \uc815\ubd80 \uc784\uae30\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\ucc44\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ubc18\uba74 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 Vaca Muerta\uac00 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc678\ud654 \ucc3d\ucd9c \ucd95\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc131\uc7a5\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561, \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \ud658\uc728 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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