{"id":13666,"date":"2026-07-22T19:51:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=13666"},"modified":"2026-07-22T19:51:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T22:51:28","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c07%ec%9b%94-22%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=13666","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(07\uc6d4 22\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \ubb34\ub514\uc2a4, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\uc2e0\uc6a9\ub4f1\uae09 \uc0c1\ud5a5\u2026\uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uc804\ub9dd \uc81c\uc2dc
    \uad6d\uc81c \uc2e0\uc6a9\ud3c9\uac00\uc0ac \ubb34\ub514\uc2a4(Moody’s)\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\uac00\uc2e0\uc6a9\ub4f1\uae09\uc744 Caa1\uc5d0\uc11c B3\ub85c \ud55c \ub2e8\uacc4 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0, \ub4f1\uae09 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 ‘\uae0d\uc815\uc801’\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uc815\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud53c\uce58(Fitch)\uc640 S&P \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c\uc774 \ub2e8\ud589\ud55c \ub4f1\uae09 \uc0c1\ud5a5\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ubb34\ub514\uc2a4\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ub3c4(\ub514\ud3f4\ud2b8) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ucd08\uae30 \uc548\uc815\ud654 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uae30\ubc18\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc8fc\uc694 \uae0d\uc815 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc744 \uaf3d\uc558\ub2e4.
    *\uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790 \uc720\uc9c0
    *\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc758 \ud070 \ud3ed \ud558\ub77d
    *\uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ud654\ud3d0\ubc1c\ud589 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uc885\ub8cc
    *\uacbd\uc81c \uc790\uc720\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc9c4\uc804
    *\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc640 \uad11\ubb3c \uc218\ucd9c \ud655\ub300 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \ub300\uc678\ubd80\ubb38 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uac1c\uc120
    *\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \uad6d\uac00 \uc9c0\uae09\ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubb34\ub514\uc2a4\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 3.4%, 2027\ub144\uc740 3.5%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbfc\uac04\ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad, \ubd80\ubd84\uc801\uc778 \ucc44\ubb34\uad50\ud658 \uc131\uacf5\u2026\uc7a5\uae30\ubb3c\uc740 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\ud558
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5f0\ub3d9\ucc44\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucc44\ubb34\uad50\ud658\uc744 \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud574 \uc804\uccb4 \ub300\uc0c1 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc758 45.17%\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc131\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\ub294 20\uc5b5 8,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc751\ucc30\uc774 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc654\uc73c\uba70, \uc2e4\uc81c \ubc30\uc815 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub294 18\uc5b5 9,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc804\uccb4 40\uc5b5 9,800\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 18\uc5b5 5,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\ub97c \uc7a5\uae30\ub85c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc18c\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc804\uccb4 \ubc30\uc815 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc758 91% \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 2026\ub144 8\uc6d4\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud588\ub2e4.
    2028\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc120\ud0dd\ud55c \ube44\uc911\uc740 8.4%\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc0c1\ud658 \uc77c\uc815\uc744 \ud55c \ub2ec \uc815\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uae30\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uadf8\ucce4\ub2e4.
    7\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 22\uc5b5 4,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc0c1\ud658 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub0c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud604\uae08 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uace0 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud658\ud5e4\uc9c0\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc99d\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\u2026\uc6d4\uac00 ADR\uacfc \uba54\ub974\ubc1c \ub3d9\ubc18 \uac15\uc138
    \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc640 \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub274\uc695\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 ADR\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300 5.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc99d\uad8c\uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 S&P \uba54\ub974\ubc1c(Merval) \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 1.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc885\ubaa9\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 7.2% \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.
    \ubc18\uba74 \uad6d\ucc44\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud63c\uc870\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 0.2% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc
    \uad6d\ub0b4\ubc95 \uc801\uc6a9 \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 0.3% \ud558\ub77d
    \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c JP\ubaa8\uac74\uc774 \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 5bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c 421bp\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80 \ucd9c\ubc94 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub358 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 19bp \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uacf5\uc2dd \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d\u2026\uac70\ub798\ub7c9 \uc99d\uac00
    \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\uba74\uc11c \uac70\ub798 \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 7\uc5b5 440\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud48d\ubd80\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740
    3.5\ud398\uc18c(0.2%) \ud558\ub77d\ud55c 1,477.50\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 1,832.54\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac \uacf5\uc2dd\ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc0c1\ub2e8\ubcf4\ub2e4 24%(355.04\ud398\uc18c) \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    7\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 4.5\ud398\uc18c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70,
    2026\ub144 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc11c\ub294 22.5\ud398\uc18c(1.5%) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ub204\uc801 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uc57d 18%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8 Banco Naci\u00f3n\uc758 \uc18c\ub9e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud310\ub9e4\uac00\ub294 1,500\ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.
    7\uc6d4 16\uc77c \uae30\uc900 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc678\ud654\uc608\uae08\uc740 4,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac10\uc18c\ud574 \ucd1d 404\uc5b5 8,600\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Vista Energy, RIGI \ucc38\uc5ec \uc2e0\uccad\u2026\ubc14\uce74\ubb34\uc5d0\ub974\ud0c0 \ub300\ud615 \ud22c\uc790 \ucd94\uc9c4
    Vista Energy\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ud22c\uc790 \uc778\uc13c\ud2f0\ube0c \uc81c\ub3c4(RIGI)\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2e0\uccad\uc11c\ub97c \uc81c\ucd9c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 Bandurria Norte \uad11\uad6c \uac1c\ubc1c\uc5d0 \ucd1d 58\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ud22c\uc790\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc8fc\uc694 \ud22c\uc790 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc720\uc815 332\uac1c \uc2dc\ucd94\uc640
    \uc6d0\uc720 \ucc98\ub9ac \ubc0f \uc6b4\uc1a1\uc2dc\uc124 \uac74\uc124\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ubaa9\ud45c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc6d0\uc720\ud658\uc0b0 5\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 Vista\uac00 \uae30\uc874 \ud575\uc2ec \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc9c0\uc5ed\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uccab \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uac1c\ubc1c\uc0ac\uc5c5\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac \ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 16\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc758 70% \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \uc218\ucd9c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    2026\ub144 2\ubd84\uae30 \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc740 11\uc5b5 5,000\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44 89% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \ud22c\uc790\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ud655\ub300 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \ubbf8\uad6d, \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc \ucd94\uc9c4\u2026\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131
    \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc5ec\ub7ec \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ucd94\uac00\uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ubc31\uc545\uad00\uc740 \uae30\uc874 10% \uc784\uc2dc\uad00\uc138 \uc885\ub8cc \uc774\ud6c4 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc95\uc801 \uacf5\ubc31\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294
    *\ub178\ub3d9\uaddc\uc815 \uc704\ubc18
    *\ubd88\uacf5\uc815 \uacbd\uc7c1
    *\uacfc\uc789 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \ubc95\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\ub3d9\uc744 \ubc1b\uc740 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ud53c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubb34\uc5ed\ubc95 \uc81c301\uc870\ub97c \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ubbf8\uad6d\ubb34\uc5ed\ub300\ud45c\ubd80(USTR) \ucd08\uc548\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74
    *\uc911\uad6d\u00b7\uc778\ub3c4\u00b7\uc77c\ubcf8 : 12.5%
    *\uba55\uc2dc\ucf54\u00b7\uce90\ub098\ub2e4\u00b7EU\u00b7\ub300\ub9cc : 10%\uc758 \uad00\uc138\uac00 \uac80\ud1a0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc138\uc728\uc740 \uc544\uc9c1 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uce90\ub098\ub2e4(50%), \ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8(25%)\uc5d0 \ubd80\uacfc\ub41c \uad00\uc138\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\u2026\uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1
    \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\ub780 \uac04 \uad70\uc0ac\ucda9\ub3cc\uc740 11\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc774\ub780 \uad70\uc0ac\uc2dc\uc124\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacf5\uc2b5\uc744 \uacc4\uc18d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc704\ud611\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud558\ub824 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc608\uba58 \ud6c4\ud2f0 \ubc18\uad70\uc740 \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544\ub97c \ud5a5\ud55c \ud574\uc0c1\ubd09\uc1c4\ub97c \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud574 \ud64d\ud574 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \ud611\uc0c1\uc744 \uac70\ubd80\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc0c1\uc120 \uacf5\uaca9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uac15\uacbd \ub300\uc751\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 3.7% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 94.35\ub2ec\ub7ec, WTI\ub294 3.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 87.4\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.
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