{"id":13603,"date":"2026-07-17T18:10:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T21:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=13603"},"modified":"2026-07-17T18:10:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T21:10:57","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c07%ec%9b%94-17%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=13603","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(07\uc6d4 17\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. 6\uc6d4 \uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790 \uae30\ub85d
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 6\uc6d4 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc545\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uac00 \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38\uc740 6,968\uc5b5 4,300\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c\uc758 \uae30\ucd08\uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790\uc640 1\uc870 240\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc9c0 \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc\ub85c \uadf8\ub3d9\uc548 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub358 \ud751\uc790 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc911\ub2e8\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80 \ucd9c\ubc94 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc801\uc790\ub97c \ubcf4\uc778 \ub2ec\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uc7ac\uc815 \uc545\ud654\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 \uc815\ubd80 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uad6d\uac00 \uc138\uc785 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ube44\ub85d 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc801\uc790\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc62c\ud574 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \uc804\uccb4\ub85c\ub294 GDP\uc758 0.1%\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\ub294 \ub204\uc801 \uc7ac\uc815 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 6\uc6d4\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc73c\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c\uae30\uad6c\uc640\uc758 \uc57d\uc18d \uc774\ud589\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc774 \uc0dd\uacbc\ub2e4.
    \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \ub204\uc801 \uae30\ucd08\uc7ac\uc815 \ud751\uc790\ub294 6\uc870 2,870\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 IMF\uc640 \ud569\uc758\ud55c \ubaa9\ud45c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 5,740\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc138\uc218 \uac10\uc18c\ub294 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc870\uc138\ud22c\uba85\uc131\ubc95 \uac1c\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \uc9d5\uc218\uac00 7\uc6d4\ub85c \uc5f0\uae30\ub41c \uc601\ud5a5\ub3c4 \ubc1b\uc558\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uad6d\uace0\ub294 \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub3cc\uc544\uc628 \uc790\ubcf8\ud654 \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc7ac\ubc1c\ud589\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ucc44\uad8c \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 3\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\uc758 \uc774\uc790 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ubd80\ub2f4\ud574\uc57c \ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ucd1d\uc138\uc785\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 4% \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ubaa9\ud45c\uc778 GDP \ub300\ube44 1.4%\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \uc57d 10\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc81c\ub97c \uc548\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad, \uad6d\ub0b4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ud655\ub300
    \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc740 Bonar 2029(A029) \uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc785\ucc30\uc744 \uc644\ub8cc\ud574 1\uc5b5 5\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucd94\uac00 \uc870\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 1\ucc28 \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\ubcf4\ud55c 4\uc5b5 7\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc640 \ud569\uccd0 \ucd1d 6\uc5b5 2\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\ub2ec\uc758 \uba85\ubaa9\uc5f0\uc774\uc790\uc728(TNA)\uc740 7.99%\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc815\ubd80\ub294 2026\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd1d 20\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc870\ub2ec\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ubc88\uae4c\uc9c0 6\uc5b5 2\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uc5ec \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c 13\uc5b5 8\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub354 \uc870\ub2ec\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.
    \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc870\ub2ec \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \ucd5c\ub300\ud654\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 8% \uc774\ud558\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc6b0\uc120\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uad6d\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc 42\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc0c1\ud658 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub358 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uae30\uc874 A027\u00b7A028 \ubc1c\ud589\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 1\ucc28 \uc785\ucc30\uc758 \ub099\ucc30 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc5c6\uc560 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubc1b\uc740 \uc774\uc790 \ucfe0\ud3f0 \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811 \uad6d\ucc44 \ub9e4\uc785\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc785\ub418\ub3c4\ub85d \ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA), \uc678\ud658 \ub9e4\uc785 \uc9c0\uc18d \uae08\uac12 \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \uac10\uc18c
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uacf5\uc2dd \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 2\uc5b5 3\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucd94\uac00 \ub9e4\uc785\ud558\uba70 \ub9e4\uc218\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \ub9e4\uc785\uc740 \ub2f9\uc77c \uac70\ub798\ub7c9 6\uc5b5 2,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 37%\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud55c\ub2e4.
    7\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ub204\uc801 \uc678\ud658 \ub9e4\uc785\uc740 14\uc5b5 500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc62c\ud574 \ub204\uc801 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc785\uc740 125\uc5b5 8\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c 128\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 7\uc6d4 \uc77c\ud3c9\uade0 \ub9e4\uc785 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub294 1\uc5b5 4,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc785\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 6,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac10\uc18c\ud574 485\uc5b5 3,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc5f0\uc18d \uac10\uc18c\uc774\uba70, \ud68c\uacc4\uc0c1 \ud3c9\uac00\uc190\uc2e4\uacfc \uad6d\uc81c \uc790\uc0b0\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc6d0\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ud2b9\ud788 \uae08 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 1.8% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uc5ec 2025\ub144 11\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubcf4\uc720\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc57d 1\uc5b5 5\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uc720\ub85c, \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc, \uc704\uc548, \uc5d4\ud654\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba74\uc11c \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ud3c9\uac00\uc561 \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uacf5\uc2dd \ud658\uc728, \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\ud2c0 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9
    \ucd5c\uadfc \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(IPC)\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 1.50\ud398\uc18c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc5ec \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2f9 1,476\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\ub9cc 7\uc6d4 \uc804\uccb4 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 6\ud398\uc18c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uc601\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc18c\ub9e4 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud658\uc728\uc740 1,495\ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ube14\ub8e8\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,525\ud398\uc18c\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, MEP \ud658\uc728\uc774 1,512.21\ud398\uc18c
    CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,566.17\ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubc34\ub4dc\uc81c\ub3c4 \ud2b9\uc131\uc0c1 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ub450 \ub2ec \uc2dc\ucc28\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 8\uc6d4 \ud658\uc728 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc740 1,879.97\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac \uacf5\uc2dd\ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc774 \uc0c1\ub2e8\ubcf4\ub2e4 400\ud398\uc18c \uc774\uc0c1 \ub0ae\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uac1c\uc785\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc\ub294 \uac70\ub9ac\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uc120\ubb3c\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 7\uc5b5 8,400\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac70\ub798\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 7\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc57d 1,483.50\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \uc138\uacc4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc790\uc0b0 \ud558\ub77d
    \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae08\uc735\uc790\uc0b0\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc99d\uac00\ub77c\ub294 \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uba54\ub974\ubc1c(Merval) \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\ub294, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 3.6% \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 3.2% \uac01\uac01 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub274\uc695\uc99d\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5 ADR\ub3c4 \ucd5c\ub300 6% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc740\ud589\uc8fc\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ub099\ud3ed\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\ucc44\ub3c4 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \ud574\uc678\ubc95 \uc801\uc6a9 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 0.28% \ud558\ub77d,
    \uad6d\ub0b4\ubc95 \uc801\uc6a9 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc57d 0.3% \uac01\uac01 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uc81c \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc545\ud654\uc640 \uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub85c \uc778\ud574 JP\ubaa8\uac74 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1.5% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 410bp\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 2018\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub118\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 400bp \uc544\ub798 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uba40\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \uc6d4\uac00 \ud558\ub77d
    \ub274\uc695\uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uc774\ud2c0 \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub85c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \uad00\ub828 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub2e4\uc18c \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc911\ub3d9\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub354\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub780\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uacf5\uc2b5\uc774 6\uc77c\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad70 \uae30\uc9c0\ub97c \ucd94\uac00 \uacf5\uaca9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c\uc720\uac00\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720: 1.7% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 85.69\ub2ec\ub7ec
    \ubbf8\uad6d WTI: 2.09% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 80.61\ub2ec\ub7ec
    \uc8fc\uac04 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 11% \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638 \ud604\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc7a5 \uc804 \uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294
    \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 1.66%, S&P500\uc740 0.87%,
    \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4\ub294 0.62% \uac01\uac01 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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