{"id":12897,"date":"2026-05-27T18:09:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T21:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12897"},"modified":"2026-05-27T18:09:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T21:09:35","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c05%ec%9b%94-27%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12897","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(05\uc6d4 27\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0, 2019\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900 \uae30\ub85d
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc758 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0\ub294 \uc804\uc77c 479\uc5b5800\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uba70 \ucd5c\uadfc 7\ub144 \uc911 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 IMF\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc790\uae08 \uc9d1\ud589\uc774 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud558\ub8e8 \ub3d9\uc548 \uacf5\uc2dd \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \ucd1d 11\uc5b5500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 1\uc5b51,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc5ec \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uacb0\uacfc, 5\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc678\ud658 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub294 19\uc5b54,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, 2026\ub144 \ub204\uc801 \ud751\uc790\ub294 90\uc5b59,800\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc740 \ud604 \uacbd\uc81c\ud300\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc5f0\uac04 100\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubaa9\ud45c \ub2ec\uc131\uc744 \ub208\uc55e\uc5d0 \ub450\uac8c \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8 \ubcf4\uc720\uc790\uc0b0 \ud3c9\uac00\ub294 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud558\ub294 \uac01\uc885 \uad6d\uc81c \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc0f \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\ub3c4 \ubc1b\uc740 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc815\ubd80, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 11\uc870 \ud398\uc18c \uc870\ub2ec \ucd94\uc9c4
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \uc624\ub298 11\uc870 \ud398\uc18c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub9cc\uae30 \ub3c4\ub798 \ucc44\ubb34\ub97c \ucc28\ud658\ud574\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ub2ec \ucd5c\ub300 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud55c\ub2e4.
    \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c\uc774 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubcf4\uc720\uc790 \uc190\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ud604\uc7ac \uc740\ud589 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc758 \ud48d\ubd80\ud55c \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc740 100% \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \ucc28\ud658 \uc131\uacf5\ub960\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uc720\uce58\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad \uae08\uc735\uad6d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ucc44\uad8c \uc0c1\ud488 \ub77c\uc778\uc5c5\uc744 \uad6c\uc131\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uacf5\uc2dd \uc785\ucc30\uc548\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4.
    2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uc2e0\uaddc Lecap.
    2027\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5f0\ub3d9 Boncer 2\uc885.
    2028\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 TAMAR(\uace0\uc561 \uc608\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac) \ucc44\uad8c \uc7ac\uac1c.
    2026\u00b72027\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 Dollar Linked(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc5f0\uacc4) \ucc44\uad8c 2\uc885 \uc2e0\uaddc \ubc1c\ud589.
    \ub2ec\ub7ec AO27\u00b7AO28 \ucc44\uad8c \uc7ac\ubc1c\ud589.
    \uc774 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ucd1d 5\uc5b55,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud55c\ub3c4\uc758 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \ubc1c\ud589 \uc81c\ud55c\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\uc778 20\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \ucc44\uc6b0\ub824 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4, \uc5f0\ud734 \uc774\ud6c4 508bp\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub77d
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae08\uc735\uc790\uc0b0\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654\uc640 \uad6d\uc81c \ubcf4\uc99d \ub300\ucd9c \ucd94\uc9c4 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \uc8fc \ucd08 \uccab \uac70\ub798\uc77c\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \ub9e4\uc218\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 1.2% \ud558\ub77d\ud55c 508bp\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 500\uc120 \ubd95\uad34 \uc9c1\uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc811\uadfc\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub274\uc695 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \ucd5c\ub300 8.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, Merval \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 2.9% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud45c\uc2dc \uad6d\ucc44\ub3c4 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc57d 1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 Global 2046 \ucc44\uad8c\uc774 0.95% \uc624\ub974\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00 \uc5ed\uc2dc Brent\uc640 WTI \uae30\uc900 \ucd5c\ub300 3% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc18c\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc18c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uacf5\uc2dd \ub3c4\ub9e4\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728, 5\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uae30\ub85d
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc5f0\ud734 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uacf5\uc2dd \ub3c4\ub9e4\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2f9 1,411\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uba70 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud558\ub8e8 \ub3d9\uc548 8\ud398\uc18c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc774\ub0a0 \uae30\uc900 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc778 1,751.66\ud398\uc18c\ubcf4\ub2e4 24.1% \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ud604\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac70\ub798\ub7c9\uc740 6\uc5b58,410\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc6d4\ub9d0 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud658\uc728\uc740 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,431.61\ud398\uc18c, CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,488.94\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd1d 11\uc5b55,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uacc4\uc57d\uc774 \uccb4\uacb0\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ud3c9\uade0 0.42% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 12\uc6d4 \uacf5\uc2dd\ud658\uc728\uc744 \uc57d 1,627\ud398\uc18c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. IMF \uc644\ud654 \uc870\uce58: \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790 \ubaa9\ud45c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815
    \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF)\uc740 6\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc694\uad6c\ud588\ub358 1\ucc28 \uc7ac\uc815\ud751\uc790 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c 1\uc8706\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c \ub0ae\ucd94\uba70 \uc815\ubd80\uc5d0 \uc228\ud1b5\uc744 \ud2d4\uc6cc\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ucd5c\uc2e0 Staff Report\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubc18\uae30 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \uae30\uc874 8\uc8704,580\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc5d0\uc11c 6\uc8708,610\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 6\uc870990\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\uc758 \ud751\uc790\ub97c \ub204\uc801\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \ub2ec\uc131 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc644\ud654 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c\u00b7\uad6d\ub0b4 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
    IMF\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd : 4% \u2192 3.5%\ub85c, \uc5f0\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd : 25%\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uc5f0\uac04 \ud1b5\ud569 \uc7ac\uc815\ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 GDP\uc758 1.4% \uc218\uc900\uc778 16\uc8704\ucc9c\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uc694\uad6c\uce58\uc778 GDP \ub300\ube44 2.2%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc640\uad00\ub828 iProfesional\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \u201c\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 IMF\uc758 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ud604\uc9c0 \uacbd\uc81c\ud300\uacfc \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uacac\ud574\ucc28\ub97c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0c8\ub2e4. IMF\ub294 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc720\uc5f0\ud55c \ud658\uc728\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud588\uace0, \ud1b5\ud654\ucd1d\ub7c9 \ud1b5\uc81c \ub300\uc2e0 \uae08\ub9ac\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ud575\uc2ec \uc218\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. IMF\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uccb4\uacc4\uac00 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub454\ud654 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc810\ucc28 \ud6a8\ub825\uc744 \uc783\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uac19\uc740 \ubb38\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc81c\uc548\uc774 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ud604\uc2e4\uc5d0 \ub9de\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba70 \ubc18\ubc15\ud588\ub2e4.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \uc815\ubd80, \uae30\uc220\uc0b0\uc5c5\uc6a9 \u2018\uc288\ud37c RIGI\u2019 \ubc95\uc548 \uc758\ud68c \uc81c\ucd9c
    \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI), \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4, \ucca8\ub2e8 \ubc14\uc774\uc624\uc0b0\uc5c5 \ub4f1 \uc544\uc9c1 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \uac1c\ubc1c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc720\uce58\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc778\uc13c\ud2f0\ube0c \uc81c\ub3c4\ub97c \uacf5\uc2dd \uc81c\ucd9c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc81c\ub3c4\ub294 30\ub144\uac04\uc758 \uc81c\ub3c4 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub97c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae30\uc220 \ud5c8\ube0c\ub85c \uc721\uc131\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4.
    \uc8fc\uc694 \ud61c\ud0dd\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\ub2e4.
    \ubc95\uc778\uc138\uc728 15% \uc801\uc6a9, \uac00\uc18d \uac10\uac00\uc0c1\uac01 \ud5c8\uc6a9,
    \uc218\uc785\u00b7\uc218\ucd9c\uc138 \uc804\uba74 \uba74\uc81c \ub4f1\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc678\ud658 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc6b4\uc601 3\ub144 \ucc28\ubd80\ud130 \uc678\ud654\uc758 100% \uc790\uc720 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ub2e8\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc644\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uae30\uc874 RIGI\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac, \uc774\ubc88 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uae30\uc874 \uc0ac\uc5c5 \ud655\uc7a5 \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\ub294 \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uba70, \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ucd5c\ucd08 24\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc804\uccb4 \ud22c\uc790\uc561\uc758 \ucd5c\uc18c 20%\ub97c \uc2e4\uc81c \uc9d1\ud589\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \ub454\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \ucc28\uc6d0\uc758 \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \uc801\uc6a9\ubc1b\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uac01 \uc8fc\uc815\ubd80\uc640 \uc9c0\ubc29\uc790\uce58\ub2e8\uccb4\uac00 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ub3c4\uc5d0 \uac00\uc785\ud558\uace0, \uc9c0\ubc29\uc138\uac00 \uad6d\uac00 \uc778\uc13c\ud2f0\ube0c \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ud6fc\uc190\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub3c4\ub85d \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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