{"id":12178,"date":"2026-04-10T16:55:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T19:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12178"},"modified":"2026-04-10T17:38:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T20:38:17","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c04%ec%9b%94-10%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12178","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(04\uc6d4 10\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561, 450\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\ud68c
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 2026\ub144 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc218 \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud558\uba70 \uc678\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c 2\uc5b58100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud655\ubcf4\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc131\uacfc\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub9cc\uc5d0 4\uc5b5200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \ucd1d 451\uc5b55200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub204\uc801 49\uc5b56400\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c \uac15\ud654\ub294 \uc790\uc720 \ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \ud1b5\uc81c \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc720\uc785\uc758 \uacac\uc870\ud568\uc740 \ub300\uc678 \ucc44\ubb34 \uc774\ud589\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud55c \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc801 \uc785\uc9c0\ub97c \uac15\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \ub3c4\ub9e4 \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d \uc9c0\uc18d
    \ub3c4\ub9e4 \ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 1,381\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uba70 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac14\uace0, \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uacfc\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \uc791\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub410\ub2e4. \uc18c\ub9e4 \ud658\uc728\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc740\ud589 \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 1,413.73\ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub098\uc2dc\uc628 \uc740\ud589\uc740 1,405\ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735 \ud658\uc728\ub3c4 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\uc73c\uba70, CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,477.36\ud398\uc18c, MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,420.86\ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300 \uc870\uc0ac(REM)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,700\ud398\uc18c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70 \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uac04 17.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc2e4\ud604\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0, \ud658\uc728 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \uc608\uc0c1 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 29.8%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uc0dd\uc0b0, \uc57d 2\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 2\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc704\ucd95\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 4% \uac10\uc18c, 1\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ud558\ub77d\ud3ed\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. INDEC (\uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 8\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 2025\ub144 \ub300\ube44 8.7% \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. 1\ubd84\uae30 \ub204\uc801 \uac10\uc18c\ud3ed\uc740 6%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc740 24%, \uae08\uc18d \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc740 22.6%, \uae30\uacc4 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc740 20% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \ud544\uc218 \uc18c\ube44\uc7ac\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544 \uc2dd\uc74c\ub8cc \ubd80\ubb38\ub3c4 7.2% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \uc608\uc678\ub294 \uc11d\uc720 \ubc0f \ud654\ud559 \ubd80\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c 2.7% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uacf5\uc2dd \ud1b5\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 2024\ub144 6\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 2016\ub144 \ud1b5\uacc4 \uc791\uc131 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c 2\uc6d4\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \ub0b4\uc218 \ubd80\uc9c4\uacfc \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ube44\uc6a9 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc744 \uce68\uccb4 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub450\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6b4\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uac74\uc124\uc5c5, 2\uc6d4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac10\uc18c \uc804\ud658
    \uac74\uc124 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \ub2ec\uc5d0 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4. INDEC\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 1\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 1.3% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44\ub85c\ub294 0.7% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc804\uccb4\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 0.3%\uc758 \ubbf8\ubbf8\ud55c \uc99d\uac00\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub0b4\uc218 \uc218\uc694\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uac74\uc124 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \uc81c\uc57d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc548\uc815 \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc7a5\uae30 \ud558\ub77d \ucd94\uc138\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uac74\uc124 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 2023\ub144 11\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 22% \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ubcc0\ud654 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uae4a\uc740 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uc544\uc9c1 \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \uacf5\uacf5 \ubc0f \ubbfc\uac04 \uac74\uc124\uc758 \ud5a5\ubc29\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc544 \uc5c5\uacc4\ub294 \uc815\uccb4 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \uc678\ud658 \uaddc\uc81c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654, \ubbfc\uac04 \uaddc\uc81c\ub294 \uac15\ud654
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \uc548\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc678\ud654 \uc811\uadfc \uaddc\uc81c\ub97c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uac1c\uc778\uacfc \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc678\ud658 \uac70\ub798 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub85c, \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc678\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uce74\ub4dc \uc778\ucd9c \ud55c\ub3c4 50\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc81c\ud55c\uc744 \ud3d0\uc9c0\ud574 \uc5ec\ud589\uac1d \uc18c\ube44\ub97c \uc6a9\uc774\ud558\uac8c \ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc218\ucd9c \ub300\uae08 \uc758\ubb34 \ud658\uc804 \ub300\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ud504\ub9ac\ub79c\uc11c \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc640 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\uac8c \uc77c\ubd80 \ucc3d\uc5c5\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc81c\uc678\ub410\ub2e4. \uae30\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud574\uc678 \uc790\ud68c\uc0ac \ub9e4\ucd9c\uc758 \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785 \uae30\ud55c\uc774 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \uc7ac\uc735\uc790 \uc870\uac74 \ud558\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc5f4\uc0ac \uac04 \uae08\uc735\ubd80\ucc44 \uc0c1\ud658\ub3c4 \ud5c8\uc6a9\ub410\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8, \uc99d\uad8c\uac70\ub798\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\ub294 \ube44\uac70\uc8fc\uc790\uc758 \ud574\uc678 \uc99d\uad8c \uc774\uc804\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 MEP\uc640 CCL \uac04 \ucc28\uc775\uac70\ub798\ub97c \ucc28\ub2e8\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uad50\ucc28 \uaddc\uc81c\ub294 \uac15\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc815\ucc45 \ud328\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uac1c\ubc29\uacfc \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0 \ucd95\uc801 \uc720\uc9c0 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\ucd9c\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uaddc\uc81c\ub294 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \ub300\uc678 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc720\uc9c0
    \uad6d\ub0b4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uad6d\uc81c \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc131\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uba70 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 17bp \ud558\ub77d\ud55c 557bp\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\uba70, S&P \uba54\ub974\ubc1c \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 0.38% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0 \ub274\uc695 ADR\ub3c4 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uc2dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud63c\uc870\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uad6d\ucc44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \uae0d\uc815 \uc694\uc18c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4.
    \ub300\uc678 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc720\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud55c\ubc88 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6d\ucc44\uac00 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\ucc98\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. \ubbf8\uad6d: \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uc8fc\ud0dd 3\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uacac\uc778
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 3\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud655\ub300\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc774 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(IPC)\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, \uc6d4\uac04 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 0.9%\ub85c 2022\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uae34\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc720\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\ub8cc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ud68c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, 2\uc6d4 2.4% \ub300\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba70 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uacbd\uacc4\uac10\uc744 \uc8fc\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc138\ubd80\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uac70\ube44\ub294 0.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uac00\uc815 \uc18c\ube44\uc640 \uc678\uc2dd \uac04 \uc0c1\uc1c4 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub85c \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 2.6%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 95.7\ub2ec\ub7ec, WTI\ub294 98.2\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucd5c\uadfc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uad00\ub828 \uc678\uad50 \uc9c4\uc804\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uac04 \uae30\uc900 2% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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