{"id":12022,"date":"2026-03-31T18:19:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T21:19:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12022"},"modified":"2026-03-31T18:19:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T21:19:56","slug":"%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9d-3-%ea%b5%ad%ea%b0%80%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98-riesgo-pais%ec%97%90-%eb%8c%80%ed%95%9c-7%ea%b0%80%ec%a7%80-%ec%a7%88%eb%ac%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=12022","title":{"rendered":"[\uacbd\uc81c \uc18c\uc2dd 3] \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218 (riesgo pa\u00eds)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 7\uac00\uc9c0 \uc9c8\ubb38"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218(\u201criesgo pa\u00eds\u201d)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c 7\uac00\uc9c0 \uc9c8\ubb38
\u2013 Daniel Marx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc65c \u201c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\u201d(\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \ub300\ube44 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \uad6d\uc81c \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uac00\uc0b0\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c \uc774\ud574\ub428)\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ud3c9\uac00\ub418\ub358 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\ub4e4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc57d 400bp \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubb3b\ub294\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8, \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad6d\ub0b4 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ubc1c\ud589\uc790\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub35c \ubd80\ub2f4\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uc870\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \uc811\uadfc\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
\uc5ec\ub7ec \uc124\uba85\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ub2e4\ub978 \ube44\uad50 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uad6d\uac00 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 “\ud55c \ubc29\uc5d0 \ud574\uacb0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95” \uac19\uc740 \ud574\uacb0\ucc45\uc740 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uacb0\ub860\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.
\ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc694\uc778\ub4e4\ub85c, \uc9c4\ud589 \uc815\ub3c4\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud55c \ucc38\uace0\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc81c\uc2dc \uc21c\uc11c\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ub3c4\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uacc4\uc57d \uc874\uc911 \ubc0f \uc81c\ub3c4\uc801 \ud2c0\uc758 \uac15\ud654: \uacc4\uc57d \ubd88\uc774\ud589\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uacfc\uac70 \uc790\uc8fc \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\ub358 \uad00\ud589\uc774\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uccb4\uacb0\ub41c \ud569\uc758\ub97c \uc874\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc774\ud589\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uc778\uc2dd\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\ud68c\ub85c \ubcc0\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uc81c\ub3c4\uc801 \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\uc740 \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub098\ub77c\uc758 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc81c\ub3c4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc758 \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba70, \uac1c\uc778 \uc911\uc2ec \ub9ac\ub354\uc2ed\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\ub97c \uc904\uc5ec\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc815\uc2e0\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud655\ub9bd\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\uc9c0\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc785\uc99d\ub418\ub294 \ud589\ub3d9, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc7ac\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669 \ubc0f \ubd80\ucc44\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654: \ucd5c\uadfc 2\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uad6d\uac00 \uc7ac\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc785\uacfc \uacbd\uc0c1\uc9c0\ucd9c\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\ub294 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0, \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc808\ub300 \ubc0f \uc0c1\ub300 \uae30\uc900 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ud1b5\uc81c\ub41c \ubd80\ucc44 \uacbd\ub85c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38 \ud1b5\ud569 \ubd80\ucc44\ub294 GDP\uc758 51%\ub85c, \ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub35c \uae08\uc735\ud654\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ub41c\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c, \ubcf8\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c \uc6d0\uc778 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uad50\ub294 \ub54c\ub54c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0 \ubc29\ubc95\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub098 \uc870\uc815, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uae30\ub85d\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc18c\uc1a1\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uacfc \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc758 \uc5ed\ud560 \uad6c\ubd84: \ud604\uc7ac \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc815\ubd80 \uae30\uad00 \uac04\uc758 \uc5ed\ud560\uacfc \ubaa9\ud45c, \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \uad6c\ubd84\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc218\uc694, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0 \ucd95\uc801 \uc18d\ub3c4 \ub4f1 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc758\ubb38\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \ud2b9\ud61c\uc801\uc774\uace0 \ube44\uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \uae08\uc735\uc6d0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uc874: \ud604\uc7ac \uacf5\uacf5\ubd80\ubb38 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc911 \u201c\uc6b0\uc120\uc801 \uc131\uaca9\u201d\uc758 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e4\uc790 \ubc0f \uc591\uc790 \uae30\uad00\uacfc\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub86f\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc804\uccb4\uc758 \uc57d 20%\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\uba70, \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc790\uae08\uc740 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uc608\uc678\uc801\uc778 \uc811\uadfc \uc218\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c, \uc740\ud589 \ub300\ucd9c \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc790\uae08\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18 \ucc44\uad8c\uc790\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc6b0\uc120\uad8c\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uc911\uc7a5\uae30 \ucc44\uad8c \ubcf4\uc720\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud6c4\uc21c\uc704 \uc704\uce58\uc5d0 \ub193\uc774\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uae08\uc735\uc6d0\uacfc\uc758 \uad00\uacc4 \ubb38\uc81c: \uacfc\uac70 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \ucc44\uad8c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \u201c\uc2e4\uc9c8\uac00\uce58 \ud6fc\uc190\u201d\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\ub358 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uad6d\ub0b4 \uae30\uad00 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc790\uae08 \uacf5\uae09\uc790\ub85c\uc11c\uc758 \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc774 \uc57d\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud558\ub294 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \uc790\uae08\uc6d0\uc744 \uc721\uc131\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uad6d\ub0b4 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2e0\uc6a9\uacfc \ud6a8\uc728\uc131 \uac1c\uc120 \ub178\ub825\uc744 \uc9c0\uc18d\ud574\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \uad6d\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uacfc\uc758 \uc0c1\ud638\ubcf4\uc644\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\uacfc \ubd88\uc77c\uce58(\ubbf8\uc2a4\ub9e4\uce58)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub178\ucd9c: \uacfc\uac70 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc218\uc785\uacfc \ubd80\ucc44 \uc870\uac74 \uac04\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc65c\uace1\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub54c \ud574\ub2f9 \uad6c\uc131 \uc694\uc18c\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \ud45c\uc2dc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ucde8\uc57d \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984 \ucd94\uc815\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \uac16\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud55c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \ucd1d \ubd80\ucc44\uc758 69%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uc678\ud654 \ud45c\uc2dc \ubd80\ucc44 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0, \uc790\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ubd80\ucc44\uc758 \ub9cc\uae30\ub97c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub97c \uc704\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc5d0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uc758\uc874\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ud53c\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uad6d\uac00 \uc218\uc785\uc774 \ud398\uc18c\ud654\ub85c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \ubd80\ucc44 \uc0c1\ud658\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc678\ud654\ub85c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4(\ud1b5\ud569 \ubd80\ucc44\uc758 63%\uac00 \uc678\ud654 \ud45c\uc2dc).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc811\uadfc\uc131\uacfc \ud22c\uba85\uc131: \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub2a5\uc758 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uac00\uaca9 \uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud22c\uba85\uc131\ub3c4 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4(\uc608: \ud658\uc728 \uac04 \ucc28\uc774 \ucd95\uc18c).
    \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc800\ucd95 \ubc30\ubd84\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574, \uc815\ubcf4 \uacf5\uc720, \ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \ub354\uc6b1 \uc2ec\ud654\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc694\uc57d\ud558\uba74, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \u201c\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\u201d\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uac04\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc694\uc778\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c, \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc800\ucd95\uc790\uc758 \uc5ed\ud560\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub418\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc870\uc131\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4\uc678 \ud1b5\ud654\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589\ub418\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ucc44\uad8c(\uae30\uc5c5 \ubc0f \uad6d\uac00 \ubaa8\ub450)\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \ubcf4\uc644\ud558\uace0, \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ub8ec \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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