{"id":10743,"date":"2025-12-11T20:49:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T23:49:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10743"},"modified":"2025-12-11T20:49:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T23:49:32","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c12%ec%9b%94-11%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10743","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(12\uc6d4 11\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcf5\uadc0
    \uac70\uc758 8\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc678\ud654 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec\uc774 \ub9c9\ud600 \uc788\ub358 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubcf5\uadc0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\ud589\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc Bonar 2029N(\uad6d\ub0b4\ubc95 \ucc44\uad8c, \ub9cc\uae30 4\ub144, \ucfe0\ud3f0\uae08\ub9ac 6.5%)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774\ub904\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ubc1c\ud589\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0\ud558\uba74 \uc5f0 9.26%\uc758 \uc720\ud6a8\uc218\uc775\ub960\ub85c, \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\uac00 \ub2f9\ucd08 \ubaa9\ud45c\ud588\ub358 \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub2e4\uc18c \ub192\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ucd1d \uc218\uc694\ub294 14\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucd08\uacfc\ud588\uace0, 2,500\uba85 \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uaddc\uc81c\uc644\ud654\uac00 \uc774\ubc88 \uc131\uacf5\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44(\ub3d9\uae30\uac04 \uae30\uc900) \ub300\ube44 550bp(5.5%) \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc,
    \uc720\uc0ac \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uae30\uc874 Bonar\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 100bp \ub0ae\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \u201c\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uae30\ucd08\uc758 \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2e0\ub8b0 \ud68c\ubcf5\u201d \ub355\ubd84\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub8e8\uc774\uc2a4 \uce74\ud478\ud1a0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc7a5\uad00\uc740 \ub2f9\ucd08 9% \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ucd5c\uc885\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d 9% \uc804\ud6c4\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589\uc774 \ub9c8\uac10\ub418\uc790, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc870\ub2ec\ub41c \uc790\uae08\uc740 2029\ub144\uacfc 2030\ub144 Bonar\uc758 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\ubd84 \uc0c1\ud658(\uc57d 12\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 33\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubbf8\uacb0 \uc0c1\ud658\ubd84\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc758 \uc9c4\uc9dc \uc2dc\ud5d8\ub300\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc131\uacf5\ubcf4\ub2e4, \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0\ub97c \uc313\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c\uac00\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc6d4\uac00 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \u201c\uc774\ubc88 \uc2e0\uaddc Bonar\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ucd1d 40\uc870 \ud398\uc18c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ucc44\uad8c \uc785\ucc30\uc744 \uacf5\uace0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\ub294 \uc624\ub298 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uacf5\ubaa8\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc758 \uad6d\uacf5\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc785\ucc30\uc740 12\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\ub418\ub294 \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \ud398\uc18c \ucc44\ubb34(\uc57d 40\uc870 \ud398\uc18c)\ub97c \uc0c1\ud658\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc9c4\ud589\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uc911 \uc57d 13\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\ub294 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubcf4\uc720\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc18d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc785\ucc30\uc740 \uc624\uc804 10\uc2dc\ubd80\ud130 \uc624\ud6c4 3\uc2dc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uba70, \ub099\ucc30\ub41c \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uacb0\uc81c\uc77c\uc740 12\uc6d4 15\uc77c(\uc6d4\uc694\uc77c)\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. INDEC, 11\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c
    \uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(INDEC)\uc740 \uc624\ub298 11\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(IPC)\ub97c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uaddc\uc81c\uac00\uaca9 \ubc0f \uacc4\uc808\ud488\ubaa9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub192\uc740 12\uc6d4\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c IPC\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub9c8\uac10\ub420\uc9c0\uac00 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    5\uc6d4\uc758 1.5%\ub97c \uc800\uc810\uc73c\ub85c, 3\uc6d4 3.7%, 4\uc6d4 2.8%, 5\uc6d4 1.5% \uc774\ud6c4\ub85c
    6\uc6d4 1.6%, 7\u00b78\uc6d4 1.9%, 9\uc6d4 2.1%, 10\uc6d4 2.3% \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 11\uc6d4 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uac19\uc740 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 REM(\uc2dc\uc7a5\uae30\ub300\uc870\uc0ac)\uc740 11\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c 2.3%\ub85c \uc218\uc815 \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 0.4% \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c 2025\ub144 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 30.4%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    Wise Capital \ud22c\uc790\ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 11\uc6d4 IPC \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc2dd\ud488(\ud2b9\ud788 \ucc44\uc18c\u00b7\uc721\ub958) \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uae30\uc778\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ub4f1 \uaddc\uc81c\ud56d\ubaa9\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uba70, 11\uc6d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc57d 2.2% \uc218\uc900, 2025\ub144 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 30.07%\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8, \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 11\uc6d4\uc5d0 2.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc804\ub2ec\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \uac00\uc18d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\uc758 11\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2.4%\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubd80\ubb38\uc740 2.5%, \uc0c1\ud488\uc740 2.3%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc62c\ud574 1~11\uc6d4 \ub204\uc801 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 28.3%,
    \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 32.6%\ub85c, 10\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 1%p \ub0ae\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ubc18\ub4f1
    \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589(10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec, \uc218\uc775\ub960 9.26%)\uc744 \uacc4\uae30\ub85c 8\ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcf5\uadc0\uac00 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc740 \uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \ucd09\ub9e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc6d4\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ucc44\uad8c\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300 0.7% \uc0c1\uc2b9,
    Bonar 2029\u00b72030\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc120\ud638\ub418\ub294 \uc885\ubaa9\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 625bp\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\ub0b4\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    S&P Merval \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 0.9%, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 1.8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574
    \uc774\uc804 \ud558\ub77d\ud3ed\uc744 \uac70\uc758 \ub9cc\ud68c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub300\ud615\uc8fc \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 4.5%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \ud658\uc728 \ub3d9\ud5a5
    \uacf5\uc2dd\ud658\uc728\uc740 1,437\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ub418\uba70 \ub2e4\uc18c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc0c1\ud55c\uc744 1,516\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc120\ubb3c\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uacc4\uc57d\uc774 0.3% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \ud658\uc728\uc740 \uc57d 1,450.5\ud398\uc18c \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uae08\uc735\ud658\uc728\uc740 \ud63c\uc870\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,496.94\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d,
    MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,471.35\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud658\uc728 \uac04\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 CCL 4.17%, MEP 2.39%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. \uc5f0\uc900, \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\ub85c \uc5f0\ub9d0 \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8\ub85c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uba70, 3.5~3.75% \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc138 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558\ub85c, \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uc2a4\ud0e0\uc2a4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840\ub9cc \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0b4\ub144 5\uc6d4 \ud1f4\uc784\uacfc \ucf00\ube48 \ud574\uc14b\uc758 \ud569\ub958 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc0ac\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud574\uc14b\uc740 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \ubc1d\ud78c \ubc14 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\ub098
    \uace0\uc6a9 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc758\uacac \ubd88\uc77c\uce58\uac00 \ucee4\uc838 3\uba85\uc758 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud45c\ub97c \ub358\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8, GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 2025\ub144 1.7%, 2026\ub144 2.3%,
    \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 2025\ub144 2.9%, 2026\ub144 2.4%, 2027\ub144 2.1%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc218\uc815\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. \uc6d4\uac00, \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \ud6c4 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub9c8\uac10
    \ub274\uc695\uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1% \uc0c1\uc2b9, S&P500\uc740 0.68%, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc740 0.33% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

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