{"id":10600,"date":"2025-12-04T15:09:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T18:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10600"},"modified":"2025-12-04T15:09:36","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T18:09:36","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c12%ec%9b%94-03%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10600","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(12\uc6d4 03\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. \uacf5\uc2dd \ud658\uc728, \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud6c4 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uae30\ub85d
    12\uc6d4\uc740 \ud658\uc728 \uc548\uc815\uc758 \ud750\ub984 \uc18d\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \uacf5\uc2dd \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uac12\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    11\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ucc28\ubd84\ud558\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \uace0\uc791 6.5\ud398\uc18c(+0.5%) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uc120\uac70 \uc804 10\uc6d4\uc758 \uac70\uc758 5% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub3c4\ub9e4\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 1,455\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uc5ec 3.50\ud398\uc18c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uacfc\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \uc57d 3.9%\ub85c, 10\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uc758 3.4%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ud655\ub300\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,477.35\ud398\uc18c(1.54% \ucc28\uc774)\uc5d0 \uac70\ub798\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,519.95\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uba70 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 4.46%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. \uc790\uc720\uc804\uc9c4\ub2f9, \ud558\uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c 3\ubd84\uc758 1 \uc774\uc0c1 \ud655\ubcf4
    10\uc6d4 26\uc77c \ucd1d\uc120 \uc2b9\ub9ac \uc774\ud6c4, \uc790\uc720\uc804\uc9c4\ub2f9\uc740 \ud558\uc6d0 \ub0b4 \uc7ac\ud3b8 \uc791\uc5c5\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud558\uc5ec \uc5ec\ub7ec \ube14\ub85d \ucd9c\uc2e0 \uc758\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc744 \uc601\uc785\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uba70\uce60 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc790\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc6d0\uc758 3\ubd84\uc758 1\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud588\uace0, \uc758\uc6d0 \uc120\uc11c \uc9c1\uc804 \uc870\uad6d\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc5f0\ud569(Uni\u00f3n por la Patria, \ud398\ub860\ub2f9)\uc744 \uc81c1 \uc18c\uc218\ub2f9 \uc790\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc00\uc5b4\ub0c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub0a8\uc740 \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc2e0\uc784 \uc758\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \ucde8\uc784\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc774\ub3d9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc790\uccb4 3\ubd84\uc758 1\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud0c4\ud575 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ub9c9\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801 \uc704\uce58\ub97c \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c \uc81c1 \uc18c\uc218\ub2f9\uc774 \ub418\uba74 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \uad6c\uc131 \ubc0f \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \ud655\ubcf4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\ub3c4\uad8c\uc744 \uc7a1\uac8c \ub418\uba70, \uac01\uc885 \ubc95\uc548 \uc2ec\uc0ac\u00b7\uc218\uc815\u00b7\uc758\uacb0 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \uc758\uc7a5\uc9c1\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\uba74 \uc785\ubc95 \uc758\uc81c \uc124\uc815\uc5d0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ud798\uc744 \ud589\uc0ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc120\uac70 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \uc790\uc720\uc804\uc9c4\ub2f9\uc740 82\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud574 3\ubd84\uc758 1(86\uc11d)\uc5d0 4\uc11d \ubd80\uc871\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc870\uad6d\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc5f0\ud569\uc740 98\uc11d, PRO\ub2f9\uc740 24\uc11d\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc5ec\ub2f9\uc740 94\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\uba70 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0 \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc758\ud68c \uad8c\ub825\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Merval \uc9c0\uc218 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138 \uc911\ub2e8, \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 \ud63c\uc870\uc138\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10
    5\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 \uc8fc\uac04 11% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub358 S&P \uba54\ub974\ubc1c\uc740 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \ud558\ub77d \uc804\ud658\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 0.6%, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 2.1% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc804\ub0a0 \ud558\ub77d\uc138 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud604\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44\uac00 \ucd5c\ub300 0.9% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    2035\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ucc44\uad8c\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud55c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 647bp\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    JP\ubaa8\uac74\uc758 \uc2e0\ud765\uc2dc\uc7a5\ucc44\uad8c\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uc815\uccb4\uc640 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc7ac\ub9e4\uc785 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc758 \uc77c\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uc815\ubd80, RIGI \uac00\uc785\uae30\ud55c 1\ub144 \uc5f0\uc7a5 \uac80\ud1a0
    \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ud22c\uc790 \uc778\uc13c\ud2f0\ube0c \uc81c\ub3c4(RIGI)\uc758 \uac00\uc785 \uae30\uac04\uc744 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac \uaddc\uc815\uc0c1 \uac00\uc785 \ucc3d\uad6c\ub294 2\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\ub839\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \ubc88\uc5d0 \ucd5c\ub300 1\ub144 \ucd94\uac00 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5\uc870\uc815\uad6d\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 27\uac74\uc758 \uacf5\uc2dd \uc2e0\uccad\uc774 \uc811\uc218\ub418\uc5c8\uace0 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2e0\uaddc \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\ub97c \uc900\ube44 \uc911\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc5f0\uc7a5 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub294 \uc5ec\ub984\ucca0 \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \ud604\ud589 \uc81c\ub3c4\ub294 2026\ub144 7\uc6d4 \uc885\ub8cc\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub9cc\uc57d \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc774 \uc2b9\uc778\ub418\uba74 2027\ub144 7\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub4f1\ub85d\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uace0, \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \uae30\uc874 \uc77c\uc815\ub300\ub85c \uc885\ub8cc\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uacbd\uc81c\ubd80\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 9\uac74\uc758 \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\uac00 \uc2b9\uc778\ub418\uc5b4 \ucd1d 248\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uc57d\uc18d\ubc1b\uc558\uc73c\uba70, \uc8fc\uc694 \ubd84\uc57c\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5\u00b7\ucca0\uac15\u00b7\ud56d\ub9cc \uc778\ud504\ub77c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. OECD, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815
    \uacbd\uc81c\ud611\ub825\uac1c\ubc1c\uae30\uad6c(OECD)\ub294 2025\ub144 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 4.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.2%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc7ac\uc815\uade0\ud615\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub97c \uc81c\uc57d\ud558\ub294 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\ud654)\uc774 \uc9c4\ud589\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\ub098, \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \ubc0f \uae08\uc735 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\uc131\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud658\uc728\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc740 \u201c\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\u201d\uacfc \u201c\uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\u201d\uc744 \ub178\ucd9c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uac31\uc2e0\ub41c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 GDP\ub294 2025\ub144 4.2%, 2026\ub144 3%, 2027\ub144 3.9% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc62c\ud574 2\ubd84\uae30 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 0.1% \uac10\uc18c, \ub0b4\uc218\ub294 0.7% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc5f0\uac04 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 9\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 31.8%\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \ud398\uc18c \ud3c9\uac00\uc808\ud558\ub85c \uc57d\uac04 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    OECD\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5 \ud22c\uc790 \ubc0f \uc218\ucd9c \uc99d\uac00\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc558\uc73c\uba70, \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uaddc\uc81c \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ud574\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubb38\uc744 \ub3d5\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\ub9cc OECD\ub294 \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uacfc \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ub354\ub514\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc644\ud654, \uc7ac\uc815\uc9c8\uc11c \ud68c\ubcf5, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc758 \uc5ed\ub3d9\uc131 \ub4f1 \uae0d\uc815 \uc2e0\ud638\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub0a8\uc544\uc788\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub3c4\uc804\uacfc\uc81c\ub97c \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Vista Energy, \ucd5c\ub300 4\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c\ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589
    Vista Energy\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c\ucc44\uad8c(Class XXIX)\ub97c \ubc1c\ud589\ud558\uc5ec \ucd5c\uc18c 3\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec, \ucd5c\ub300 4\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc870\ub2ec\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ubc88 \ucc44\uad8c\uc740 2033\ub144 6\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30, \uc5f0 8.5% \uc774\uc790\uc728, 2031~2033\ub144 3\ud68c \ubd84\ud560 \uc0c1\ud658 \uad6c\uc870\uc774\uba70 \ub274\uc695\ubc95 \uc801\uc6a9\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud574\ub2f9 \uc790\uae08\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \ucc44\ubb34(\uc57d 3.89\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec) \uc0c1\ud658\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    Vista\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 6\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub3c4 5\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc870\ub2ec\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud655\uc7a5 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\ub824 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac Vista\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ucd5c\ub300 \ubbfc\uac04 \uc11d\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc5c5\uccb4\ub85c, \ud558\ub8e8 11\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2028\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 72% \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \uc218\ucd9c \ube44\uc911 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. \ubbf8\uad6d, \ud575\uc2ec \uc778\uc0ac \ubc29\ubb38 \uc911\ub2e8 \u2014 \uc591\uad6d \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38 \uc99d\ud3ed
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\uc7a5\uad00 \uc2a4\ucf67 \ubca0\uc13c\ud2b8\uac00 12\uc6d4 \ucd08 \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ubc29\ubb38\uc744 \ubb34\uae30\ud55c \uc5f0\uae30\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 12\uc6d4 5\uc77c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134 \ubc29\ubb38(\ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \ucd08\uccad\uc73c\ub85c \uc6d4\ub4dc\ucef5 \ucd94\ucca8 \ud589\uc0ac \ucc38\uc5ec)\uc744 \ucde8\uc18c\ud55c \uc9c0 \uba70\uce60 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ub098\uc628 \uacb0\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub450 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134-\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uac04\uc758 \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \ub0b3\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uce74\uc0ac \ub85c\uc0ac\ub2e4(\ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uad81)\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc313\uc544\uc628 \uc870\uc728 \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0 \uade0\uc5f4\uc744 \uac00\uc838\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \uc57d 50\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ucc44\ubb34 \uc0c1\ud658\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc678\ubd80 \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.
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