{"id":10568,"date":"2025-12-02T18:12:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T21:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10568"},"modified":"2025-12-02T18:12:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T21:12:14","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c12%ec%9b%94-02%ec%9d%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10568","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(12\uc6d4 02\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 Bopreal \ucc44\uad8c \uc0c1\ud658
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc740 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ubcf4\ud504\ub808\uc54c(Bopreal) \ub9cc\uae30\ub97c \uc0c1\ud658\ud588\uc73c\ub098, \uc774\ub294 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4.
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc804\ub0a0 \uc218\uc785\uc5c5\uccb4\ub4e4\uc758 \ub300\uc678\ubb34\uc5ed \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \uc815\uc0b0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \u2018\ubcf4\ud504\ub808\uc54c(Bopreal)\u2019 \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \ub9cc\uae30\ubd84\uc744 \uc0c1\ud658\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc0c1\ud658 \uaddc\ubaa8\ub294 \uc57d 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud1b5\ud654\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc608\uace0\ud588\ub358 \ub300\ub85c \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud574 \uc9c0\uae09\uc774 \uc774\ub904\uc84c\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucd5c\uc885 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \u20180\u2019\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6e0\ub2e4.
    \ucd1d \uc0c1\ud658\uae08\uc561\uc740 10\uc5b5 1,250\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774 \uc911 6,400\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub9cc \ud574\uc678 \ubcf4\uc720\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc9c0\uae09\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \ub098\uba38\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc21c\ud658\ub418\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ucd1d\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4.
    \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774\ubc88 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \u2018\uc21c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561(reservas netas)\u2019\uc758 \uacc4\uc0b0 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ubcc0\uacbd\uc2dc\ucf30\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc0b0 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.
    \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0, \uc9c0\uae09\uc774 \uc774\ub904\uc84c\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucd1d\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub3d9\uc548 14\uc5b5 6,200\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uc5ec 417\uc5b5 7,600\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 \uc6d4\ucd08\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uacb0\uc0b0 \ud6c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc801 \uc790\uae08 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ub410\ub2e4.
    \uad6d\uc81c\ud1b5\ud654\uae30\uae08(IMF) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc21c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc740 \ucd1d\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0\uc11c 1\ub144 \uc774\ub0b4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uc678\ud654\ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \ucc28\uac10\ud574 \uc0b0\ucd9c\ub418\ub294\ub370, \uc774 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uc5d0 \uc57d -170\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc21c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.
    \uc989, \ub2e8\uae30 \uc678\ucc44 \uc804\uc561\uc744 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uac1a\uc544\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uac00\uc6a9 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. 12\uc6d4 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5
    12\uc6d4 \uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc548\uc815\ub41c \ucd9c\ubc1c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uacf5\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc548\uc815\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud658\uc728\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    11\uc6d4 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uc628 \ub4a4, \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728\uc740 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \ub2e8 6.5\ud398\uc18c \uc0c1\uc2b9(0.5%)\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 10\uc6d4\uc758 5% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    12\uc6d4 \uccab \uac70\ub798\uc77c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub3c4\ub9e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 1,451.5\ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8 \ub300\ube44 \uc57d 4% \ucc28\uc774\ub85c, 10\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uc758 3.4%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ub192\ub2e4.
    \uc5f0\ucd08 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 40.7%\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ub410\ub2e4.
    \ud658\uc728 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \uc774\ub048 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc774 \uc790\uc720\uc2dc\uc7a5(MULC)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc678\ud658\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ub9e4\uc218\uc790\ub85c \ub098\uc120 \uc810\uc774 \uaf3d\ud78c\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uacf5\uc2dd \ud658\uc728\uad00\ub9ac \uccb4\uacc4\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud588\ub2e4.
    \ub610\ud55c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654 \uc120\ud638 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud55c \uac83\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.
    \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \uc99d\uad8c\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(CNV)\uac00 \ube44\uac70\uc8fc\uc790 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud558\ub8e8 \uac70\ub798\ud55c\ub3c4(2\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec)\ub97c \uc644\ud654\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \ube44\uac70\uc8fc\uc790\uac00 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc0c1\ud658\uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc7ac\ud22c\uc790\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ud5c8\uc6a9\ud55c \uc810\ub3c4 \uae08\uc735\ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uae30\uc5ec\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc870\uce58 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,475.23\ud398\uc18c\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud558\ub77d(\uaca9\ucc28 1.63%),
    CCL \ud658\uc728(\ud574\uc678\uc1a1\uae08\ud658\uc728)\uc740 1,496.85\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10(\uaca9\ucc28 3.12%)\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574\uc11c\ub294, \uc778\ud3ec\ubc14\uc5d0(Infobae)\uc9c0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4:
    \u201c\ub514\uc2a4\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub454\ud654) \uacfc\uc815\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc6d4\uac04 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2% \uc774\ud558\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uc9c0\uac00 \ub17c\uc810\uc774\ub2e4.
    \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub77c\uc9c8\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 2% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub2e4.\u201d
    \ub610\ud55c \u201c\ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc804\uac00\ub294 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, \uac00\uaca9 \ud615\uc131\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. 11\uc6d4 \uc138\uc218(\uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc785)
    11\uc6d4\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc138\uc218\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 8.6% \uac10\uc18c\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 2024\ub144 11\uc6d4\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uae30\uc800\ud6a8\uacfc \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc138\ubb34\uad00\uc138\uccad(ARCA)\uc740 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.
    11\uc6d4 \ucd1d \uc138\uc218\ub294 15.6\uc870 \ud398\uc18c\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uba85\ubaa9 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 19.7% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc57d 31%)\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4.
    ARCA\ub294 \uc791\ub144 11\uc6d4\uc758 \uc77c\ud68c\uc131 \uc138\uc785(\uace0\uc728 Pa\u00eds\uc138, \ud2b9\ubcc4 \uc790\uc9c4\uc2e0\uace0\uc138, \uc138\uae08 \uc120\ub0a9 \ub4f1)\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc62c\ud574 11\uc6d4 \uc218\uc785\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc801\uac8c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc77c\ud68c\uc131 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 11\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uac10\uc18c\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uc99d\uc2dc \ubc0f \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5
    S&P Merval \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 5\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 1.1%, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 2.6% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubc18\uba74, \uad6d\ucc44\ub294 12\uc6d4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub85c \uc804\ud658,
    11\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ud3c9\uade0 0.3% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub358 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud45c\uc2dc \uad6d\ucc44\ub4e4\uc774 \uc18c\ud3ed \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\ub294 648bp \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d4\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 ADR\ub4e4\uc774 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ud558\ub77d\uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \ub3d9\ubc18\ud558\uba70 3.6% \ud558\ub77d,
    \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 0.8% \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \ub099\ud3ed\uc744 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \uc6d0\uc720 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5
    \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud558\ub8e8 \ub9cc\uc5d0 1% \uc774\uc0c1 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\uc640 \uacf5\uae09 \ubd88\uc548 \uc694\uc778 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uce74\uc2a4\ud53c\ud574 \uc1a1\uc720\uad00 \ucee8\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5c4\uc774 \ub4dc\ub860 \uacf5\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\ucd9c\uc744 \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uace0,
    OPEC+\uac00 2026\ub144 \ucd08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ucffc\ud130\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uae30\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4.
    \ud604\uc7ac \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 62.72\ub2ec\ub7ec, WTI\ub294 58.9\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uacf5\uae09\uce21 \ubd88\uc548\uc774 \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec\uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.
    \ud55c\ud3b8, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uac04\uc758 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544\uc640\uc758 \ud3c9\ud654\uacf5\uc2dd \ub9c8\ub828\uc744 \ub17c\uc758 \uc911\uc774\uba70,
    \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \u201c\ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c \uc0c1\uacf5\uacfc \uc8fc\ubcc0 \uacf5\uc5ed\uc744 \ud3d0\uc1c4\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ubc1c\uc5b8\ud558\uba74\uc11c
    \ub0a8\ubbf8 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc7ac\ubd80\uac01\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. \uc6d4\uac00(Wall Street)
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \ud504\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ud3ed \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc804\ub0a0 \ud558\ub77d \uc774\ud6c4 \uc77c\ubd80 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824 \uc644\ud654\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c \uac1c\uc120, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc758 \uc870\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \ubcf5\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4.
    11\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc740 9\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc704\ucd95\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, S&P500 +0.26%, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 +0.38%, \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4 +0.16% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uc7a5\uc744 \uc5f4\uc5c8\ub2e4.
    \ub274\uc695 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\ub4e4\uc740 2025\ub144\uc744 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc591\ud638\ud55c \uc131\uacfc\ub85c \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \uc911\uc774\ub2e4.
    \uc62c\ud574 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub204\uc801 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740
    \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 +20.9%,
    S&P500 +14.7%,
    \ub2e4\uc6b0\uc874\uc2a4 +11.7%\uc5d0 \uc774\ub974\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

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