{"id":10486,"date":"2025-11-28T16:10:43","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T19:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10486"},"modified":"2025-11-28T16:10:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T19:10:45","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c11%ec%9b%94-28%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10486","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(11\uc6d4 28\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud658\uc728 \ub3d9\ud5a5
    \uacf5\uc2dd \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728\uc740 5\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ub9c8\uce58\uace0 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub0a0\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ucd94\uc218\uac10\uc0ac\uc808\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub7c9\uc774 \uc801\uc740 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc7ac\ubb34\uccad\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc785\ucc30 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    \ub3c4\ub9e4\ud658\uc728: 1,450\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10 (\uc804\uc77c \ub300\ube44 3.5\ud398\uc18c \ud558\ub77d)
    \uc785\ucc30 \uacb0\uacfc: \ucd1d 13\uc870 9,900\uc5b5 \ud398\uc18c \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \ubc1c\ud589\ud558\uba70 96.48%\uc758 \ub864\uc624\ubc84(\uac31\uc2e0) \ub2ec\uc131 \u2014 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uce58\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569.
    \uae08\ub9ac: \ud3c9\uade0 35% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uacb0\uc815.
    \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(BCRA)\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5f0 20%\ub85c \uc778\ud558\ud558\uace0
    \uc9c0\uae09\uc900\ube44\uc728 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
    MEP \ud658\uc728\uc740 0.4% \ud558\ub77d \u2192 1,481.82\ud398\uc18c
    CCL \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,523.74\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10 (\ubcc0\ub3d9 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\uc74c)
    \ud658\uc728 \uac04\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \uac01\uac01 2.19%, 5.09% \uc218\uc900 \uc720\uc9c0.
    *\uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc0f \uc678\ud658\uc548\uc815 \ud3c9\uac00
    2026\ub144 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc120\ubb3c\uacc4\uc57d\uc740 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc608\uc0c1 \ud658\uc728\uc740 1,523.5\ud398\uc18c\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ub418\uba70, 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uacc4\uc57d\ubd80\ud130\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud588\ub2e4.
    \uc774\uc640\uad00\ub828 Infobae \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4.
    \ud658\uc728\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc740 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc694\uc778 \ub355\ubd84\uc784.
    1) \uacf5\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uacf5\uae09 \uc99d\uac00
    2) \uacc4\uc808\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud398\uc18c \uc218\uc694 \uac10\uc18c
    3) \uae30\uc5c5\u00b7\uc9c0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc678\ud654\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589 \uc720\uc785
    \u2192 11\uc6d4 \ud55c \ub2ec\uac04 \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785\uc561\uc740 40\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1,
    \uc790\uc720\uc804\uc9c4\ub2f9 \uc815\ubd80 \ucd9c\ubc94 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. CNV\uc758 \uba38\ub2c8\ub9c8\ucf13 \ud380\ub4dc \ud22c\uc790 \uc81c\ud55c
    \uc99d\uad8c\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(CNV)\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uad8c\uace0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c
    \uba38\ub2c8\ub9c8\ucf13 \ud380\ub4dc\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \ub2f4\ubcf4\ub300\ucd9c \uac70\ub798 \ud22c\uc790 \ube44\uc728\uc744 \uc21c\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 20%\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c.
    2025\ub144 12\uc6d4 1\uc77c\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\ud589 (\uacb0\uc758\uc548 N\u00ba1092).
    \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ubaa9\uc801:
    \u2192 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uc65c\uace1 \ubc29\uc9c0 \ubc0f \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc644\ud654.
    \uc120\uac70 \uc804 \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \ub2e8\uae30 \ub300\ucd9c \uae08\ub9ac\ub294
    \uc5f0 120~150%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uba70 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubd80\uc871\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc74c.
    \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08 \uc870\ub2ec\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\ubd88\ud574\uc57c \ud588\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc2e0\uc6a9\ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub192\uc5ec \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ucf30\uc74c.
    \uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30 \uc131\uacf5\uacfc \uc900\ube44\uae08 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ub355\ubd84\uc5d0
    \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc810\ucc28 \uc644\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ucd94\uc138.
    \uc774\ubc88 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub428.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. \uc99d\uc2dc\uc640 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc6d4\uac00)\uc774 \ud734\uc7a5\ud55c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370,
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uc88b\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ubcf4\uc784.
    S&P Merval \uc9c0\uc218: +1.2%, 3\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9 \u2192 \ud55c \ub2ec \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc8fc\uac04 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc608\uc0c1
    \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900 Merval: +3.4%
    \ud398\uc18c \ud45c\uc2dc \ucc44\uad8c(CER \uc5f0\ub3d9): \ucd5c\ub300 0.9% \ud558\ub77d
    \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uad6d\ucc44: Bonar 2035 +1.2%, Global 2038 \u20130.3%
    \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4(Riesgo pa\u00eds): \ubbf8\uad6d \ud734\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c 653bp\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ub3d9\ud5a5
    \ucd1d\ubcf4\uc720\uc561: 419.59\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec (+5,800\ub9cc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud558\ub8e8 \uc99d\uac00)
    \uc804\uc77c: +7.17\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00\ub85c 419.01\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\ub85d
    \u2192 \ucd5c\uadfc \uba70\uce60\uac04 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc138.
    \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 IMF \ubaa9\ud45c\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubd80\uc871.
    \ubaa9\ud45c \ub2ec\uc131\uc744 \uc704\ud574\uc120 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 104\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud544\uc694.
    \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80\uc640\uc758 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504 \ud3ec\ud568 \uc2dc \ucd1d 139\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900.
    \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c \ub2ec\uc131 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub290\ub9ac\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. \ub18d\uc5c5 \u2014 \ubc00\u00b7\ub300\ub450 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc804\ub9dd
    2025\/26 \ubc00 \uc218\ud655\ub7c9: 2,550\ub9cc \ud1a4 \uc608\uc0c1
    (\uc774\uc804 \uc608\uc0c1 2,400\ub9cc \ud1a4 \ubc0f 2021\/22\uc758 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 2,240\ub9cc \ud1a4 \uc0c1\ud68c)
    \ud48d\ubd80\ud55c \uac15\uc6b0\uc640 \uc6b0\uc218\ud55c \uc791\ud669\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \uc0c1\ud68c.
    \uc218\ud655 \uc9c4\ud589\ub960: 33.9%, \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uae30\ub300 \uc774\uc0c1.
    \ub300\ub450(soja) \ud30c\uc885\ub960: 1\uc8fc\uc77c \uc0c8 11%p \uc99d\uac00 \u2192 \uc804\uccb4 \uba74\uc801\uc758 36% \uc644\ub8cc
    \uc2dc\uce74\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9:
    \ud1a4\ub2f9 390\ub2ec\ub7ec \u2192 420\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\uc2b9(+8%)
    \u2192 \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc57d 14\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uc218\uc775 \ubc1c\uc0dd \uc804\ub9dd.
    \uc625\uc218\uc218\u00b7\ub300\ub450\u00b7\ubc00\uc758 \ud569\uc0b0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 10% \uc99d\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1.
    \ucd1d \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc218\ucd9c \uac00\uce58\ub294 \uc57d 40\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc99d\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd.
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc138\uacc4 \ucd5c\ub300 \ub300\ub450\ubc15\u00b7\ub300\ub450\uc720 \uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uc774\uba70, \uc138\uacc4 3\uc704 \uc625\uc218\uc218 \uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c
    2026\ub144\uc740 \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc218\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ud574\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub428.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. YPF\uc758 \ud68c\uc0ac\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589
    \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uad6d\uc601 \uc11d\uc720\ud68c\uc0ac YPF\uac00 \uc0c8 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5bb\uc73c\uba70 \uae08\uc735 \uad6c\uc870 \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 \uc131\uacf5.
    \uccad\uc57d \ucd1d\uc561: 2\uc5b5 3,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec,
    \ucd5c\uc885 \ubc1c\ud589\uc561: 1\uc5b5 9,400\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec.
    \uc774\uc911\uc5d0 1\uc5b5 6,900\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc790\uae08, 2,500\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \ucc44\uad8c \uad50\ud658 \ubd84\uc784.
    \ubc1c\ud589\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 7%\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4\uc600\ub2e4.
    \uc774\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uae30\uc5c5\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc138\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ud68c\uc0ac\ucc44\ub294 \ub77c\ud2f4\uc544\uba54\ub9ac\uce74 \uc9c0\uc5ed \ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc790\uc0b0\uad70 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":10487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,25,61],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-noticias-argentina","category-informes-economicos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}