{"id":10174,"date":"2025-11-15T07:43:09","date_gmt":"2025-11-15T10:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10174"},"modified":"2025-11-15T08:34:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-15T11:34:35","slug":"%ec%98%a4%eb%8a%98%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c11%ec%9b%94-14%ec%9d%bc-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10174","title":{"rendered":"\uc624\ub298\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c(11\uc6d4 14\uc77c)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\" src=\"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/download-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10175\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf7 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098, \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815 \uc9c4\uc804<br>\uc591\uad6d\uc758 \uc591\uc790 \uacbd\uc81c \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc7ac\uc815\uc758\ud558\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc640 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815\uc5d0 \ud569\uc758\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud611\uc815\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\ubc29, \uc7a5\ubcbd \ucd95\uc18c, \uaddc\uc81c\uc758 \uc870\ud654\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec \uc591\uad6d \uac04 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\u00b7\uc790\ubcf8\uc758 \uad50\ud658\uc744 \ucd09\uc9c4\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\ubc88 \ud569\uc758(\ucd5c\uc885 \ubb38\uc548\uc774 \uc644\uc131\ub418\uba74 \uc11c\uba85\ub420 \uc608\uc815)\ub294 \uc218\uc2ed \ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc591\uad6d \uac04 \uc0c1\uc5c5 \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc9c4\uc804\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub418\uba70, \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uac1c\ud601 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc774 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub97c \ud45c\uba85\ud558\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub3c4 \uac16\ub294\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc138\ubd80 \uc870\ud56d\uc774 \ud655\uc815\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae30\uc5c5\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc81c \uac1c\ubc29 \ud3ed\uacfc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uc758\ubb34\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\ub294 \uc0c8 \uc815\uce58 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\uce58\uc640 \uc218\ucd9c \ud655\ub300\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc815\ub82c\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc911\uc694 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uae30\ub85c \uc0bc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ucd5c\uc885 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \uc138\ubd80 \uc870\ud56d\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud611\uc0c1\ub418\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. \u2018\uc0c1\ud638 \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815 \ud2c0(Marco de Acuerdo de Comercio Rec\u00edproco e Inversi\u00f3n)\u2019\uc740 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud574\uc628 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc740 200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504(\ubd80\ubd84\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc1c\ub3d9)\ub97c \uc2b9\uc778\ud588\uace0, \uac19\uc740 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5f4\uc5b4 \ub450\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\uace0 10\uc6d4 26\uc77c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc804 \uc815\ubd80\ub97c \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811 \ub9e4\uc785\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ubc00\ub808\uc774\uc5d0\uac8c \uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub294 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc131\uacfc\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc815\ub82c\uc744 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uba70 \uc138\uacc4 \ubb34\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ub3d9\ub9f9 \uc911 \ud55c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac\ub9e4\uae40\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud611\uc815\uc5d0\ub294 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801 \uc57d\uc18d\ub4e4\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc758\uc57d\ud488, \ud654\ud559\uc81c\ud488, \uae30\uacc4\ub958, \uae30\uc220, \uc758\ub8cc\uae30\uae30, \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28, \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \ub4f1 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc218\ucd9c\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc6b0\uc120 \uc811\uadfc\uad8c\uc744 \ubd80\uc5ec\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub610\ud55c \uc591\uad6d\uc740 \uc9c0\uc801\uc7ac\uc0b0\uad8c \ubd84\uc57c \ud611\ub825\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uc704\uc870\ud488 \ubc0f \ud574\uc801\ud589\uc704\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub300\ucc45\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud558\uba70, \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ud658\uacbd\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ub2e8\uc18d\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\uc640 \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4 \uc591\uad6d\uc740 \ud575\uc2ec \uad11\ubb3c \ubd84\uc57c \ud611\ub825\uc744 \uc2ec\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub300\ub450(soja) \ubb34\uc5ed\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ud611\ub825\ud558\uba70, \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ubb34\uc5ed \ucd09\uc9c4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc9c4\uc804\uc744 \uc774\ub8f0 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc911 \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ubb34\uc5ed \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uac1c\uc778 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uad6d\uacbd \uac04 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc744 \u2018\uc801\uc808\ud55c \uad00\ud560 \uc9c0\uc5ed\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc815\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf7 \uc815\ubd80, \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \ud3d0\uc9c0 \ubc0f \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \uae30\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uac80\ud1a0<br>12\uc6d4 \uc784\uc2dc \uad6d\ud68c \ud68c\uae30\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0, \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \uc81c\ub3c4 \ud3d0\uc9c0\uc640 \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138(\uc784puesto a las Ganancias) \ubcc0\uacbd\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc138\uc81c \uac1c\ud3b8\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IMF \ub300\ubcc0\uc778\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uccb4\uc81c\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc, IMF\uac00 \u201c\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ucd95\uc801 \ub178\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uac83\u201d\uc744 \uc694\uccad\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<br>Kozack\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ec\uac74\uc758 \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc548\uc815\uc131\uc744 \uacf5\uace0\ud788 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc5f4\uc5b4\uc900\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc138 \uc790\ub9bf\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d \uc5f0\uac04 30% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815\u00b7\ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45 \ub355\ubd84\uc5d0 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uacbd\uc81c \ud65c\ub3d9\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574 \uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, IMF\ub294 2024\ub144\uc758 \ud558\ub77d \uc774\ud6c4 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 4.5% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0, \uad11\uc5c5, \ub18d\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. Kozack\uc740 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ube48\uace4 \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5ec\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uadf8\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uc870\uc138\u00b7\ub178\ub3d9 \uac1c\ud601\uc774 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uace0 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc870\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcb2 \ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub3c4\ub9e4\ub2ec\ub7ec(MLC \uae30\uc900)\ub294 6\ud398\uc18c \ud558\ub77d\ud574 1,406\ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uba70 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8(1,502.48\ud398\uc18c)\uacfc\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \uac70\uc758 100\ud398\uc18c, 6.42%\ub85c \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud658\uc728\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544\ub3c4 \ub418\ub294 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub35c\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud55c\ud3b8 \uae08\uc735 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub4e4\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MEP \ub2ec\ub7ec: 1,462.04\ud398\uc18c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CCL \ub2ec\ub7ec: 1,480.31\ud398\uc18c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\ub85c\uc368 \ud658\uc728 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uac01\uac01 3.99%, 5.29% \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uad6d\uc81c\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\ub3c4 \uc774\ub0a0 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 MULC\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud310\ub9e4 \uac10\uc18c\uc640 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacc4\uc808\uc801 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc9c0\uae09 \uc77c\uc815 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Infobae\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ub9b0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u201c\ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \ud398\uc18c \ud3c9\uac00 \uc808\uc0c1\uc740 \uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub300 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5 \ubd80\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785 \ub54c\ubb38\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udcc9 S&amp;P Merval(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900) 4% \ud558\ub77d \u2014 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc601\ud5a5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Merval(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900)\uc740 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 4% \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \ubd88\uc548\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b0 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uac74\uc124\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70, \uc815\ubd80(\ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774)\uac00 \uc9c1\uba74\ud55c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacfc\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<br>\ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 3.4% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 4.1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc885\ubaa9\uc740 8.2%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ucc44\uad8c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonar 2029\u00b72030: -1.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonar 2038: -1.2%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global 2030: -1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global 2041: -1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 14\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc57d 619bp\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub274\uc695\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc8fc\uc2dd\ub3c4 \ucd5c\ub300 6.2% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 12\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc5f0\uae30(\uc815\ubd80 43\uc77c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc601\ud5a5) \ub4f1 \uc678\ubd80 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub354\ud574\uc9c4 \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\uc2dc, \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc11c 6\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec \ucd94\uc9c4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\ub294 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc7ac\uc735\uc790\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc57d 6\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\uace0, \uc774 \uc911<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ucc44\ubb34 \ub864\uc624\ubc84<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">4\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uc0ac\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc2dc \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \u201c\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\uc758 \ubd80\ucc44\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub192\uace0 \ubbfc\uac04 \ucd5c\uace0 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uacf5\uacf5\u00b7\ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \ud65c\ub3d9 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uada4\ub97c \uac19\uc774\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uad6d\uac00 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ub0b4\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc608\uc815\uc778 48\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc7ac\uc735\uc790\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcf5\uadc0\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0 \uc911<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\ub3c4 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589 \uc9c4\ud589<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tecpetrol: 7\uc5b55\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">YPF\u00b7Pampa Energ\u00eda\u00b7Pluspetrol: \uac01\uac01 \uc57d 5\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec<br>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 TGS\u00b7Edenor \ub4f1\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub098\uc62c \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \uc5c5\uacc4 \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc57d 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucd94\uac00 \ubc1c\ud589\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udfed \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38 \u2014 10\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960 60% \ud68c\ubcf5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc0b0\uc5c5 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc740 9\uc6d4 61.1%\ub85c 10\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c 60%\ub97c \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\ub2e4.<br>\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44\ub85c\ub294 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uac10\uc18c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">8\uc6d4(59.4%)\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc791\ub144 9\uc6d4(62.2%) \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\ub294 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80 \ucd9c\ubc94 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4(2024\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc81c\uc678).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc5c5\uc885\uc740<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uace0\ubb34\u00b7\ud50c\ub77c\uc2a4\ud2f1 \uc81c\ud488: 49.9% \u2192 42.9% (\ud0c0\uc774\uc5b4\u00b7\ud50c\ub77c\uc2a4\ud2f1 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uac10\uc18c \ub54c\ubb38)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud55c\ud3b8 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc9c0\uc218(IPI)\ub294 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 -0.1%, 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub204\uc801\uc73c\ub85c -3.6%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud2b9\ud788 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \ud070 \uc5c5\uc885:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc12c\uc720\u00b7\uc758\ub958<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc790\ub3d9\ucc28<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub450 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc218\uc785 \uac1c\ubc29 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70,<br>\uc12c\uc720\ub294 \ub0b4\uc218 \ubd80\uc9c4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\ucce4\ub2e4.<br>\uc790\ub3d9\ucc28\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \ub2e4\uc18c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1b\uccd0\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83c\udfe6 IMF, \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uae30\uc870 \uc9c0\uc9c0\u2026 \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ucd95\uc801 \u2018\ub354 \uac00\uc18d\u2019 \uc694\uccad<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IMF \ub300\ubcc0\uc778 Julie Kozack\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uccb4\uacc4\ub294 \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \u201c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uac15\ud654\uc640 \uc678\ubd80 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uacfc \uc77c\uce58\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc801\uc6a9\ud55c \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc815\ucc45\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2f5\ubcc0\uc744 \ud53c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \u201c\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ucd95\uc801\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uad00\ub9ac\uc640 \uc2e0\ub8b0 \uc81c\uace0\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc77 \uc870\uc138\u00b7\ub178\ub3d9 \uac1c\ud601\uc548 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub0b4\uc6a9<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc815\ubd80 \uc81c\uc548\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0(\uac04\ud3b8\uacfc\uc138 \uc81c\ub3c4) \uac00\uc785\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc77c\ubc18 \uc790\uc601\uc5c5 \uccb4\uacc4\ub85c \uc774\uc804\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc608\uc0c1 \uc18c\ub4dd \uae30\uc900: 10\ub9cc~50\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uac1c\uc778 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uacf5\uc81c \uac00\ub2a5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ubd80\uac00\uc138(VAT) \ucd5c\uc18c \uae30\uc900\uc740 \uae30\uc874 \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 F \uce74\ud14c\uace0\ub9ac \uc218\uc900(\uc6d4 300\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c)\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uc815<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc18c\ub4dd\uc138(Ganancias) \uac1c\uc815:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2025\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc6d4\uae09 170\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uacf5\uc81c \ucd5c\uc18c\uc561 \uc124\uc815<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub178\ub3d9 \uac1c\ud601:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \ucc44\uc6a9 \uc2dc \uc0ac\ud68c\ubcf4\uc7a5 \ubd80\ub2f4\uae08 \uac10\uba74<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc774\ud0c8 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1\uc778 \uc0ac\ub78c \ubc0f \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \ud0c8\ud1f4\uc790\ub3c4 \ud61c\ud0dd \uc801\uc6a9<br><br>  * AI \ubc88\uc5ed\uc744 \uad50\uc815\ud574\uc11c \uc62c\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf7 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098, \uc804\ub840 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815 \uc9c4\uc804\uc591\uad6d\uc758 \uc591\uc790 \uacbd\uc81c \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc7ac\uc815\uc758\ud558\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc5b4\uc81c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc640 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815\uc5d0 \ud569\uc758\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud611\uc815\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\ubc29, \uc7a5\ubcbd \ucd95\uc18c, \uaddc\uc81c\uc758 \uc870\ud654\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec \uc591\uad6d \uac04 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\u00b7\uc790\ubcf8\uc758 \uad50\ud658\uc744 \ucd09\uc9c4\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ud569\uc758(\ucd5c\uc885 \ubb38\uc548\uc774 \uc644\uc131\ub418\uba74 \uc11c\uba85\ub420 \uc608\uc815)\ub294 \uc218\uc2ed \ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc591\uad6d \uac04 \uc0c1\uc5c5 \uad00\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc9c4\uc804\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub418\uba70, \ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uac1c\ud601 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc774 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub97c \ud45c\uba85\ud558\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub3c4 \uac16\ub294\ub2e4. \uc138\ubd80 \uc870\ud56d\uc774 \ud655\uc815\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae30\uc5c5\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc81c \uac1c\ubc29 \ud3ed\uacfc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4\ud558\uac8c \ub420 \uc758\ubb34\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac10\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\ub294 \uc0c8 \uc815\uce58 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\uce58\uc640 \uc218\ucd9c \ud655\ub300\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc815\ub82c\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc911\uc694 \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uae30\ub85c \uc0bc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc885 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \uc138\ubd80 \uc870\ud56d\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ud611\uc0c1\ub418\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. \u2018\uc0c1\ud638 \uc0c1\uc5c5\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ud611\uc815 \ud2c0(Marco de Acuerdo de Comercio Rec\u00edproco e Inversi\u00f3n)\u2019\uc740 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud574\uc628 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\uc740 200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504(\ubd80\ubd84\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc1c\ub3d9)\ub97c \uc2b9\uc778\ud588\uace0, \uac19\uc740 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uae08\uc735 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5f4\uc5b4 \ub450\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud658\uc728 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\uace0 10\uc6d4 26\uc77c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70 \uc804 \uc815\ubd80\ub97c \uc9c0\uc6d0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811 \ub9e4\uc785\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4. \ubc00\ub808\uc774\uc5d0\uac8c \uc774\ubc88 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub294 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc131\uacfc\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc815\ub82c\uc744 \ub354\uc6b1 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uba70 \uc138\uacc4 \ubb34\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ub3d9\ub9f9 \uc911 \ud55c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\ub9ac\ub9e4\uae40\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ud611\uc815\uc5d0\ub294 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801 \uc57d\uc18d\ub4e4\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uc758\uc57d\ud488, \ud654\ud559\uc81c\ud488, \uae30\uacc4\ub958, \uae30\uc220, \uc758\ub8cc\uae30\uae30, \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28, \ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \ub4f1 \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \uc218\ucd9c\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc6b0\uc120 \uc811\uadfc\uad8c\uc744 \ubd80\uc5ec\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc591\uad6d\uc740 \uc9c0\uc801\uc7ac\uc0b0\uad8c \ubd84\uc57c \ud611\ub825\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uc704\uc870\ud488 \ubc0f \ud574\uc801\ud589\uc704\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub300\ucc45\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud558\uba70, \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ud658\uacbd\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ub2e8\uc18d\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4 \uc591\uad6d\uc740 \ud575\uc2ec \uad11\ubb3c \ubd84\uc57c \ud611\ub825\uc744 \uc2ec\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ub300\ub450(soja) \ubb34\uc5ed\uc758 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ud611\ub825\ud558\uba70, \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ubb34\uc5ed \ucd09\uc9c4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc9c4\uc804\uc744 \uc774\ub8f0 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc911 \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \ubb34\uc5ed \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub294 \uac1c\uc778 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uad6d\uacbd \uac04 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc744 \u2018\uc801\uc808\ud55c \uad00\ud560 \uc9c0\uc5ed\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc815\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4. \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf7 \uc815\ubd80, \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \ud3d0\uc9c0 \ubc0f \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138 \uae30\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uac80\ud1a012\uc6d4 \uc784\uc2dc \uad6d\ud68c \ud68c\uae30\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0, \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \uc81c\ub3c4 \ud3d0\uc9c0\uc640 \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138(\uc784puesto a las Ganancias) \ubcc0\uacbd\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc138\uc81c \uac1c\ud3b8\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. IMF \ub300\ubcc0\uc778\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uccb4\uc81c\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc, IMF\uac00 \u201c\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ucd95\uc801 \ub178\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc18d\ud654\ud560 \uac83\u201d\uc744 \uc694\uccad\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.Kozack\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ec\uac74\uc758 \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uc548\uc815\uc131\uc744 \uacf5\uace0\ud788 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc5f4\uc5b4\uc900\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc138 \uc790\ub9bf\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d \uc5f0\uac04 30% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud55c \uc7ac\uc815\u00b7\ud1b5\ud654 \uc815\ucc45 \ub355\ubd84\uc5d0 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c \ud65c\ub3d9\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574 \uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, IMF\ub294 2024\ub144\uc758 \ud558\ub77d \uc774\ud6c4 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 4.5% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0, \uad11\uc5c5, \ub18d\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. Kozack\uc740 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ube48\uace4 \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uae30\uc5ec\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uadf8\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \uc870\uc138\u00b7\ub178\ub3d9 \uac1c\ud601\uc774 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uace0 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uc870\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \ud83d\udcb2 \ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5 \ub3c4\ub9e4\ub2ec\ub7ec(MLC \uae30\uc900)\ub294 6\ud398\uc18c \ud558\ub77d\ud574 1,406\ud398\uc18c\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\uba70 \ud658\uc728 \ubc34\ub4dc \uc0c1\ub2e8(1,502.48\ud398\uc18c)\uacfc\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \uac70\uc758 100\ud398\uc18c, 6.42%\ub85c \ubc8c\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud658\uc728\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544\ub3c4 \ub418\ub294 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub35c\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uae08\uc735 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub4e4\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. MEP \ub2ec\ub7ec: 1,462.04\ud398\uc18c CCL \ub2ec\ub7ec: 1,480.31\ud398\uc18c \uc774\ub85c\uc368 \ud658\uc728 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uac01\uac01 3.99%, 5.29% \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uad6d\uc81c\ubcf4\uc720\uc561\ub3c4 \uc774\ub0a0 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 MULC\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ud310\ub9e4 \uac10\uc18c\uc640 \ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacc4\uc808\uc801 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc9c0\uae09 \uc77c\uc815 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. Infobae\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ub9b0 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u201c\ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \ud398\uc18c \ud3c9\uac00 \uc808\uc0c1\uc740 \uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub300 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \uae30\uc5c5 \ubd80\ucc44 \ubc1c\ud589\uc744 \ud1b5\ud55c \uc678\ud654 \uc720\uc785 \ub54c\ubb38\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \ud83d\udcc9 S&amp;P Merval(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900) 4% \ud558\ub77d \u2014 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc601\ud5a5 S&amp;P Merval(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900)\uc740 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c 4% \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \ubd88\uc548\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b0 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uac74\uc124\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70, \uc815\ubd80(\ud558\ube44\uc5d0\ub974 \ubc00\ub808\uc774)\uac00 \uc9c1\uba74\ud55c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacfc\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \ud398\uc18c \uae30\uc900 3.4% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 4.1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc885\ubaa9\uc740 8.2%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ucc44\uad8c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, Bonar 2029\u00b72030: -1.4% Bonar 2038: -1.2% Global 2030: -1% Global 2041: -1% \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 14\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc57d 619bp\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4. \ub274\uc695\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uc8fc\uc2dd\ub3c4 \ucd5c\ub300 6.2% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 12\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\uad6c\uc2ec, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \uc5f0\uae30(\uc815\ubd80 43\uc77c \uc167\ub2e4\uc6b4 \uc601\ud5a5) \ub4f1 \uc678\ubd80 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub354\ud574\uc9c4 \uacb0\uacfc\ub2e4. \ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4\uc2dc, \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc11c 6\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc870\ub2ec \ucd94\uc9c4 \ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\ub294 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc7ac\uc735\uc790\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc57d 6\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uad6d\uc81c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\uace0, \uc774 \uc911 2\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ucc44\ubb34 \ub864\uc624\ubc84 4\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uc0ac\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc2dc \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \u201c\ubd80\uc5d0\ub178\uc2a4\uc544\uc774\ub808\uc2a4 \uc2dc\uc758 \ubd80\ucc44\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub192\uace0 \ubbfc\uac04 \ucd5c\uace0 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uacf5\uacf5\u00b7\ubbfc\uac04 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \ud65c\ub3d9 \uc99d\uac00\uc640 \uada4\ub97c \uac19\uc774\ud55c\ub2e4. \uad6d\uac00 \uc815\ubd80\ub294 \ub0b4\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc608\uc815\uc778 48\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc7ac\uc735\uc790\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcf5\uadc0\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0 \uc911 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\ub3c4 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ucc44\uad8c \ubc1c\ud589 \uc9c4\ud589 Tecpetrol: 7\uc5b55\ucc9c\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec YPF\u00b7Pampa Energ\u00eda\u00b7Pluspetrol: \uac01\uac01 \uc57d 5\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 TGS\u00b7Edenor \ub4f1\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub098\uc62c \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \uc5c5\uacc4 \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc57d 10\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucd94\uac00 \ubc1c\ud589\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud83c\udfed \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38 \u2014 10\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960 60% \ud68c\ubcf5 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc740 9\uc6d4 61.1%\ub85c 10\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c 60%\ub97c \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\ub2e4.\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44\ub85c\ub294 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \uac10\uc18c\ub2e4. 8\uc6d4(59.4%)\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc791\ub144 9\uc6d4(62.2%) \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\ub294 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce5c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \uc815\ubd80 \ucd9c\ubc94 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4(2024\ub144 10\uc6d4 \uc81c\uc678). \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc5c5\uc885\uc740 \uace0\ubb34\u00b7\ud50c\ub77c\uc2a4\ud2f1 \uc81c\ud488: 49.9% \u2192 42.9% (\ud0c0\uc774\uc5b4\u00b7\ud50c\ub77c\uc2a4\ud2f1 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uac10\uc18c \ub54c\ubb38) \ud55c\ud3b8 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc9c0\uc218(IPI)\ub294 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 -0.1%, 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub204\uc801\uc73c\ub85c -3.6%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \ud070 \uc5c5\uc885: \uc12c\uc720\u00b7\uc758\ub958 \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28 \ub450 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc218\uc785 \uac1c\ubc29 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70,\uc12c\uc720\ub294 \ub0b4\uc218 \ubd80\uc9c4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\ucce4\ub2e4.\uc790\ub3d9\ucc28\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \ub2e4\uc18c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1b\uccd0\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \ud83c\udfe6 IMF, \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \uae30\uc870 \uc9c0\uc9c0\u2026 \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \ucd95\uc801 \u2018\ub354 \uac00\uc18d\u2019 \uc694\uccad IMF \ub300\ubcc0\uc778 Julie Kozack\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uccb4\uacc4\ub294 \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \u201c\uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uac15\ud654\uc640 \uc678\ubd80 \uc548\uc815\uc131\uacfc 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\uae30\uc900\uc740 \uae30\uc874 \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 F \uce74\ud14c\uace0\ub9ac \uc218\uc900(\uc6d4 300\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c)\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uc815 \uc18c\ub4dd\uc138(Ganancias) \uac1c\uc815: 2025\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc6d4\uae09 170\ub9cc \ud398\uc18c\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub098\uc758 \uacf5\uc81c \ucd5c\uc18c\uc561 \uc124\uc815 \ub178\ub3d9 \uac1c\ud601: \uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc2e0\uaddc \ucc44\uc6a9 \uc2dc \uc0ac\ud68c\ubcf4\uc7a5 \ubd80\ub2f4\uae08 \uac10\uba74 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc774\ud0c8 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc774\uc0c1\uc778 \uc0ac\ub78c \ubc0f \ubaa8\ub178\ud2b8\ub9ac\ubd80\ud1a0 \ud0c8\ud1f4\uc790\ub3c4 \ud61c\ud0dd \uc801\uc6a9 * AI \ubc88\uc5ed\uc744 \uad50\uc815\ud574\uc11c 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