{"id":10105,"date":"2025-11-10T15:07:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T18:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10105"},"modified":"2025-11-10T15:08:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T18:08:22","slug":"%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c-%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9d-1-%eb%a6%ac%ea%b9%8c%eb%a5%b4%eb%8f%84-%ec%95%84%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%88%98-%ea%b0%95%ec%97%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hanin.org.ar\/?p=10105","title":{"rendered":"[\uacbd\uc81c \uc18c\uc2dd 1] \ub9ac\uae4c\ub974\ub3c4 \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218 \uac15\uc5f0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc2ed\ub2c8\uae4c, \ucd5c\ub3c4\uc120\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\uc800\ud76c \ud55c\uc778\ud68c\ub294 \ub9e4\uc77c \ud604\uc9c0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc694\uc57d\ud558\uc5ec \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uaed8 \uc804\ub2ec\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc911 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c \uae30\uc0ac \ub450 \ud3b8\uc740 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc720\uc775\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ub418\uc5b4, \ud55c\uc778 \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\ub4e4\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uacf5\uc720\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 80\uc138\uc774\uc2e0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801 \uacbd\uc81c\uc778 Ricardo Arriazu \ubc15\uc0ac\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
Arriazu \ubc15\uc0ac\ub294 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud558\uace0 \uacbd\uccad\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacfc\uac70 IMF \uadfc\ubb34 \uacbd\ub825\uc744 \ube44\ub86f\ud574 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub110\ub9ac \uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \ubd84\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ucf54\ub974\ub3c4\ubc14(C\u00f3rdoba)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f4\ub9b0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc138\ubbf8\ub098\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc804\uac1c \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac15\uc5f0\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc18c\uac1c\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub97c \ubc29\ubb38\ud55c \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 Larry Kotlikoff \uad50\uc218\uc758 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.
Kotlikoff \uad50\uc218\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 25\uba85\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \uc911 \ud55c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2016\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \ub300\ud1b5\ub839 \ud6c4\ubcf4\ub85c \ucd9c\ub9c8\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801 \uc11d\ud559\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\ub294 Perfil\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0ac\uc7a5\uc778 Jorge Fontevecchia\uac00 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc7a5\uc2dc\uac04 \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ubb38\uc81c\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uacf5\ud1b5\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ud604\uc548, \ub098\uc544\uac00 \ud55c\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774 \ub2f4\uaca8 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud604\uc7ac \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\ub97c \uae30\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc724\uacfd\uc774 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 5\ub144, 10\ub144 \ub4a4 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\ud560\uc9c0\uac00 \uacb0\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.
\uc6b0\ub9ac \ud55c\uc778 \uc0ac\ud68c \uc5ed\uc2dc \uae09\ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\ube44\ud558\uace0, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud22c\uc790\uc640 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd\ud574\uc57c \ud560\uc9c0 \ub9ce\uc740 \uace0\ubbfc\uc744 \uc548\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc800\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ub098\ub77c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 10\ub144, 20\ub144\uac04 \ub208\ubd80\uc2e0 \ubc1c\uc804\uc744 \uc774\ub8f0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc2e0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uadf8 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc0ac\ud68c \uacc4\uce35\uc5d0 \uace0\ub974\uac8c \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc774\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \ud615\ud0dc\ub294 \uc544\ub2d0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uacfc \uc9c0\uc5ed, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc0ac\ud68c \uacc4\uce35\uc5d0 \ud3b8\uc911\ub41c \ubd88\uade0\ud615\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ubc88 \ub450 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\ud560\uc9c0, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud604 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560\uc9c0\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub450 \uae30\uc0ac \ubaa8\ub450 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud55c\uae00\ub85c \ubc88\uc5ed\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc6d0\ubb38 \ub610\ud55c \ucda9\uc2e4\ud788 \uc791\uc131\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc73c\ub2c8 \uc2a4\ud398\uc778\uc5b4\uc5d0 \uc775\uc219\ud558\uc2e0 \ubd84\ub4e4\uaed8\uc11c\ub294 \uc6d0\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \uc77d\uc5b4 \ubcf4\uc2dc\uae30\ub97c \uad8c\ud574\ub4dc\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ub9ac\uce74\ub974\ub3c4 \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218(Ricardo Arriazu)\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc \ucf54\ub974\ub3c4\ubc14(C\u00f3rdoba)\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ucc3e\uc544, \u201c\uc815\uce58\uac00 \ubc29\ud574\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba74 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\u201d<\/em>\ub294 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uce58\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 Mediterr\u00e1nea Valores y Acciones S.A.<\/em>\uc758 \ucd08\uccad\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d 300\uba85\uc758 \uccad\uc911 \uc55e\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04\uc758 \uac70\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uad6d\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac15\uc5f0\ud588\ub2e4.
\uc9c1\uc124\uc801\uc778 \ud654\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \u201c\uc2e0\ub8b0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae30\ubc18\uc774\ub2e4\u201d\ub77c\uba70, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \u201c\uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcc8 \u201c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc9c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud22c\ucfe0\ub9cc(Tucum\u00e1n) \ucd9c\uc2e0\uc758 \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \u201c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uae30\ub294 \uc9c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba70, \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.
\uadf8\uc758 \ucd94\uc815\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, 2026\ub144 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP)\uc740 6% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub18d\uc5c5 \ud68c\ubcf5\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5 \ubd84\uc57c\uc758 \ud22c\uc790 \uc720\uc785\uc774 \uc8fc\ub41c \ub3d9\ub825\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \ub610\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc2dc\uc98c \ub18d\uc791\ubb3c \uc218\ud655\ub7c9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\uba70, \uc218\ucd9c \uac00\ub2a5 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uacfc \ucd1d \uac00\uce58 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcb0 \uc7ac\uc815 \uad00\ub9ac\ub3c4 \uae0d\uc815\uc801<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \uac15\uc5f0\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c\uc7ac\uc815\uc774 \ud751\uc790(0.1%)\ub97c \uae30\ub85d \uc911\uc774\uba70, \uadf8 \uc815\ub3c4\uba74 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uba70 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uac74\uc804\uc131\ub3c4 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83c\udf3e \u201c\uc804\ud658\uc810\uc740 \ub18d\uc5c5 \ud68c\ubcf5\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub18d\uc5c5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uadf8\uc758 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc778 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.
\uadf8\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ub18d\uc791\ubb3c \ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 2023\/24\ub144 1\uc5b5 3,850\ub9cc \ud1a4\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\/26\ub144 1\uc5b5 5,780\ub9cc \ud1a4\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.
\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c \uc625\uc218\uc218\uc640 \ub300\ub450(soja)<\/em>\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\uba70, \uac00\ubb44 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc5ed\ub300 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4.
\u2022 \ub300\ub450(soja): 2023\/24\ub144 4,820\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2025\/26\ub144 5,200\ub9cc \ud1a4
\u2022 \uc625\uc218\uc218(ma\u00edz): 2023\/24\ub144 5,750\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2025\/26\ub144 6,300\ub9cc \ud1a4
\u2022 \ubc00(trigo): 1,390\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2,300\ub9cc \ud1a4
\u2022 \ud574\ubc14\ub77c\uae30(girasol): 510\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 570\ub9cc \ud1a4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ucd1d \uc218\ud655 \uac00\uce58\ub294 457\uc5b5 6,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c 497\uc5b5 6,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc57d 50\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83c\udf26 \u201c\uae30\ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5\uacfc \uc2e0\ub8b0 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \uc774 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ud654\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc744 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ud588\ub2e4.
1. \uc5d8\ub2c8\ub1e8(El Ni\u00f1o) \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uae30\ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5,
2. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \u201c\uae30\ud6c4\uc640 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uba74, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \ub530\ub77c\uc628\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uacb0\ub860\uc9c0\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udf3e \u201c\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\uac00 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uba74 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc778\ub2e4\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\uac00 \ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uba74, \ub545\uc744 \uac1c\uac04\ud558\uace0, \ube5a\uc744 \uac1a\uace0, \uae30\uacc4\ub97c \uc0b0\ub2e4.
\uc774\ubc88\uc5d4 \uae30\ud6c4\ub3c4 \ub3c4\uc640\uc92c\uace0, \uc790\uae08 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\ub3c4 \ucda9\ubd84\ud588\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uadf8\ub294 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.
\uadf8\ub294 \ub18d\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uc678\ud658\uc218\uc9c0\uc640 \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0 \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 \uacb0\uc815\uc801 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcb0 \u201c\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc628\ub2e4\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \u201c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uac00 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub418\uba74 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc7ac\uc815\uc801 \uc5ec\uc720\ub97c \ud655\ubcf4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uba70 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \ud56d\uc0c1 \ubb3b\ub294\ub2e4, \u2018\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc5b4\ub514\uc11c \ub098\uc62c\uae4c?\u2019 \ub0b4 \ub300\ub2f5\uc740 \uac04\ub2e8\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \uc788\uc73c\uba74 \uc18c\ube44\ud558\uace0, \ud22c\uc790\ud558\uace0, \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud55c\ub2e4.
\uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba74 \uac00\ub9cc\ud788 \uc788\uac8c \ub418\uace0, \uadf8\uac8c \ubc14\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.\u201d
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcc9 \ubd80\ucc44\uc640 \uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 \ud558\ub77d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\uc758 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ubc18\ud5a5\uc744 \uc77c\uc73c\ud0a8 \ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uad6d\uac00\ubd80\ucc44 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.
\uadf8\ub294 \u201c\uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uac04\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \uc0c1\uacc4\ud558\uace0, \u2018\uc815\ubd80 \ub0b4 \ubd80\ucc44(intraestado)\u2019\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uba74,
\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc21c\ubd80\ucc44\ub294 GDP\uc758 19%\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc774\ub294 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \u2018\uc0c1\uc2b5\uc801 \ucc44\ubb34\ubd88\uc774\ud589\uad6d\u2019\uc774\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc783\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.
\uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \ubb34\ub108\ub728\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370\ub294 1\ucd08, \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \ub370\ub294 \uc218\ub144\uc774 \uac78\ub9b0\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \ub610 \u201c\uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc989\uc2dc \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4\u201d\uba70
\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4(riesgo pa\u00eds)<\/em>\uac00 2,300\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c 620\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0,
\u201c\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ud658\uc728 \uc2e4\uc218\ub97c \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba74 500 \uc774\ud558\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \u201c\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc740 \ud070 \ubc84\ud300\ubaa9\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504(swap)<\/em>\ub3c4 \ub192\uac8c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc911\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504\ub294 \ud68c\uacc4\uc0c1 \uc81c\uc57d\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4.
\uc774\ub294 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubb38\uc81c \ud574\uacb0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uac15\ud654, \uc2dc\uac04 \ud655\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.
\uc774\ub7f0 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc740 \ub77c\ud2f4\uc544\uba54\ub9ac\uce74\uc758 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub098\ub77c\ub3c4 \uac16\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4.\u201d
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcca \u201c2026\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \ubcf8\uaca9 \uc131\uc7a5\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \u201c\uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc9c\uccb4\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ub82c\ub41c \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc,
\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5\u00b7\uc9c0\uc2dd\uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uac74\uc124\u00b7\ub18d\uc5c5\uc774 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc654\ub2e4\u201d\uba70 \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc774\uac74 \uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc3e\uc544\uc628 \uae30\ud68c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc, \u2018\ub9dd\uce58\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \ub41c\ub2e4\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ucd08 \uac15\uc5f0 \uc81c\ubaa9\uc774 \u201c\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub97c \uafc8\uafb8\uba70\u201d<\/em>\uc600\ub2e4\uace0 \ud68c\uc0c1\ud558\uba70,
\u201c\uc774\uc81c \uadf8 \uafc8\uc774 50%\ucbe4 \ud604\uc2e4\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc84c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83d\udcc8 \u201c\uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \ud22c\uc790 \uc911\uc2ec \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c\ub2e4\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\uc758 \uc608\uce21\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.
\u201c\uc62c\ud574 2\uc6d4 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uace0 4\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, 10\uc6d4\uc758 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub180\ub78d\uac8c \uc88b\uc558\ub2e4.
\uad6d\ubbfc\uc774 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc785\uc744 \uba48\ucd98\ub2e4\uba74, \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 2025\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 6%<\/em>\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.
\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \uc911\uc2ec\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0, \uad11\uc5c5, \uc11d\uc720, \ub18d\uc5c5 \ub4f1 \uace0\ud22c\uc790 \ubd80\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uba70,
\u201c\uc815\uce58\uac00 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uacfc \uace0\uc6a9 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubd80\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc758 \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \ud655\uc0b0\uc2dc\ucf1c\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83e\udde9 \u201c\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub2e4\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \u201c\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc624\ub79c \uae30\uac04 \uc720\ud734\uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825(capacidad ociosa)<\/em>\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\u201d\uba70
\u201c\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \uacb0\uc815\uc801\uc774\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc9c0\ub09c 15\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud22c\uc790\ub780 \uac8c \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4.
\uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc218\uc694\ub9cc \ub298\uba74 \uc720\ud734 \uc124\ube44\uac00 \uace7\ubc14\ub85c \uac00\ub3d9\ub41c\ub2e4.
\uacbd\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub2e4.\u201d
\u2e3b
\u2699 \uad6c\uc870\uac1c\ud601\uc758 \ud544\uc694\uc131<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \u201c\u2018\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \ube44\uc6a9(costo argentino)\u2019**\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc0c1\ub300\uac00\uaca9 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c,
\ub178\ub3d9\ube44\uc6a9, \uc138\uae08 \ubd80\ub2f4, \uae08\uc735\ube44\uc6a9, \uaddc\uc81c, \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ubd80\uc871\uc774 \ubaa8\ub450 \ud569\uccd0\uc9c4 \uacb0\uacfc\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uae38\uc778 \u2018\ud658\uc728\uc808\ud558(devaluaci\u00f3n)\u2019\ub97c \ud0dd\ud588\ub2e4.
\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uadf8 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 3\uac1c\uc6d4\ubc16\uc5d0 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4.
\uc9c4\uc9dc \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uac74 \u2018\uc131\uc7a5\ud638\ub974\ubaac\u2019, \uc989 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \uccb4\uc9c8 \uac1c\uc120\uc774\uc9c0,
\ub2e8\uae30 \ud658\uc728\uc870\uc815\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4.\u201d
\u2e3b
\ud83d\ude9c \u201c2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub294 \uc218\ucd9c\uc138(retenciones) \ud3d0\uc9c0 \uac00\ub2a5\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub294 \u201cGDP \ub300\ube44 0.1%\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \ud751\uc790\ub9cc \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\ub3c4 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uba70
2026\ub144 \ub9d0\ucbe4 \uc218\ucd9c\uc138 \ucca0\ud3d0\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.
\ub610\ud55c \uc138\uae08\uacfc \uc0dd\uc0b0\ube44\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uba74, 2030\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc774 6\ucc9c\ub9cc \ud1a4 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.
\u2e3b
\ud83e\udde0 \u201c\uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub9dd\uce58\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc790\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uadf8\ub294 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub41c \uc2e4\ud328 \uc5ed\uc0ac\ub97c \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uba70 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\uc774 \ub098\ub77c\ub294 \ub298 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \ub9dd\ucce4\ub2e4.
\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ub610 \ud55c \ubc88\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.
\uc7ac\uc815 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uace0\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0, \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc9c0\ud0a4\uba74
\uc5f0\ud3c9\uade0 5% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.
\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc194\uc9c1\ud788 \ub9d0\ud574, \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uadf8\ub807\uac8c \ud560\uc9c0\ub294 \ub098\ub3c4 \ubaa8\ub974\uaca0\ub2e4.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uccad\uc911\uc740 \uadf8\uc758 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ub9d0\uc744 \ub4e3\uace0 \uc6c3\uc74c\uacfc \ubc15\uc218\ub85c \uac15\uc5f0\uc744 \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ud588\ub2e4.
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc2ed\ub2c8\uae4c, \ucd5c\ub3c4\uc120\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\uc800\ud76c \ud55c\uc778\ud68c\ub294 \ub9e4\uc77c \ud604\uc9c0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc694\uc57d\ud558\uc5ec \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uaed8 \uc804\ub2ec\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc911 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc\uc5d0 \uac8c\uc7ac\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c \uae30\uc0ac \ub450 \ud3b8\uc740 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc720\uc775\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ub418\uc5b4, \ud55c\uc778 \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\ub4e4\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uacf5\uc720\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 80\uc138\uc774\uc2e0 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \ub300\ud45c\uc801 \uacbd\uc81c\uc778 Ricardo Arriazu \ubc15\uc0ac\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.Arriazu \ubc15\uc0ac\ub294 \ubc00\ub808\uc774 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud558\uace0 \uacbd\uccad\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacfc\uac70 IMF \uadfc\ubb34 \uacbd\ub825\uc744 \ube44\ub86f\ud574 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub110\ub9ac \uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \ubd84\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ucf54\ub974\ub3c4\ubc14(C\u00f3rdoba)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f4\ub9b0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc138\ubbf8\ub098\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uc804\uac1c \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac15\uc5f0\ud55c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc18c\uac1c\ud574 \ub4dc\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\ub97c \ubc29\ubb38\ud55c \uc138\uacc4\uc801 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 Larry Kotlikoff \uad50\uc218\uc758 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.Kotlikoff \uad50\uc218\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 25\uba85\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \uc911 \ud55c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2016\ub144 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \ub300\ud1b5\ub839 \ud6c4\ubcf4\ub85c \ucd9c\ub9c8\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c\uc801 \uc11d\ud559\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\ub294 Perfil\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0ac\uc7a5\uc778 Jorge Fontevecchia\uac00 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc7a5\uc2dc\uac04 \uc9c4\ud589\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ubb38\uc81c\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uacf5\ud1b5\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \ud604\uc548, \ub098\uc544\uac00 \ud55c\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774 \ub2f4\uaca8 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc911\uac04\uc120\uac70\ub97c \uae30\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc724\uacfd\uc774 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 5\ub144, 10\ub144 \ub4a4 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc758 \uad6d\uac00\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\ud560\uc9c0\uac00 \uacb0\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\uc6b0\ub9ac \ud55c\uc778 \uc0ac\ud68c \uc5ed\uc2dc \uae09\ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\ube44\ud558\uace0, \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ud22c\uc790\uc640 \ube44\uc988\ub2c8\uc2a4\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd\ud574\uc57c \ud560\uc9c0 \ub9ce\uc740 \uace0\ubbfc\uc744 \uc548\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc800\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc7a0\uc7ac\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ub098\ub77c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\uc774\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 10\ub144, 20\ub144\uac04 \ub208\ubd80\uc2e0 \ubc1c\uc804\uc744 \uc774\ub8f0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc2e0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uadf8 \ubc1c\uc804\uc774 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc0ac\ud68c \uacc4\uce35\uc5d0 \uace0\ub974\uac8c \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc774\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \ud615\ud0dc\ub294 \uc544\ub2d0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uacfc \uc9c0\uc5ed, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc0ac\ud68c \uacc4\uce35\uc5d0 \ud3b8\uc911\ub41c \ubd88\uade0\ud615\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ubc88 \ub450 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\uc804\ud560\uc9c0, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud604 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560\uc9c0\ub97c \uac00\ub2a0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc0dd\uac01\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub450 \uae30\uc0ac \ubaa8\ub450 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud55c\uae00\ub85c \ubc88\uc5ed\ud558\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc6d0\ubb38 \ub610\ud55c \ucda9\uc2e4\ud788 \uc791\uc131\ub418\uc5b4 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\uac15\uc5f0\ud588\ub2e4.\uc9c1\uc124\uc801\uc778 \ud654\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \u201c\uc2e0\ub8b0\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae30\ubc18\uc774\ub2e4\u201d\ub77c\uba70, \uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uac00 \u201c\uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.\u2e3b\ud83d\udcc8 \u201c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uc758 \ucd5c\uc545\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc9c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\u201d \ud22c\ucfe0\ub9cc(Tucum\u00e1n) \ucd9c\uc2e0\uc758 \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \u201c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0\uc758 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uae30\ub294 \uc9c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba70, \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.\uadf8\uc758 \ucd94\uc815\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, 2026\ub144 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP)\uc740 6% \uc131\uc7a5\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub18d\uc5c5 \ud68c\ubcf5\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uad11\uc5c5 \ubd84\uc57c\uc758 \ud22c\uc790 \uc720\uc785\uc774 \uc8fc\ub41c \ub3d9\ub825\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ub610\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c \uc2dc\uc98c \ub18d\uc791\ubb3c \uc218\ud655\ub7c9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\uba70, \uc218\ucd9c \uac00\ub2a5 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uacfc \ucd1d \uac00\uce58 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0\uc11c \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.\u2e3b\ud83d\udcb0 \uc7ac\uc815 \uad00\ub9ac\ub3c4 \uae0d\uc815\uc801 \uadf8\ub294 \uac15\uc5f0\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c\uc7ac\uc815\uc774 \ud751\uc790(0.1%)\ub97c \uae30\ub85d \uc911\uc774\uba70, \uadf8 \uc815\ub3c4\uba74 \ucda9\ubd84\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uba70 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc758 \uac74\uc804\uc131\ub3c4 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.\u2e3b\ud83c\udf3e \u201c\uc804\ud658\uc810\uc740 \ub18d\uc5c5 \ud68c\ubcf5\u201d \ub18d\uc5c5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uadf8\uc758 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc778 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.\uadf8\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ub18d\uc791\ubb3c \ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc740 2023\/24\ub144 1\uc5b5 3,850\ub9cc \ud1a4\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\/26\ub144 1\uc5b5 5,780\ub9cc \ud1a4\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c \uc625\uc218\uc218\uc640 \ub300\ub450(soja)\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5 \ub355\ubd84\uc774\uba70, \uac00\ubb44 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc5ed\ub300 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub41c\ub2e4.\u2022 \ub300\ub450(soja): 2023\/24\ub144 4,820\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2025\/26\ub144 5,200\ub9cc \ud1a4\u2022 \uc625\uc218\uc218(ma\u00edz): 2023\/24\ub144 5,750\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2025\/26\ub144 6,300\ub9cc \ud1a4\u2022 \ubc00(trigo): 1,390\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 2,300\ub9cc \ud1a4\u2022 \ud574\ubc14\ub77c\uae30(girasol): 510\ub9cc \ud1a4 \u2192 570\ub9cc \ud1a4 \ucd1d \uc218\ud655 \uac00\uce58\ub294 457\uc5b5 6,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c 497\uc5b5 6,700\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc57d 50\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.\u2e3b\ud83c\udf26 \u201c\uae30\ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5\uacfc \uc2e0\ub8b0 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\u201d \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \uc774 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ubcc0\ud654\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc744 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc694\uc57d\ud588\ub2e4.1. \uc5d8\ub2c8\ub1e8(El Ni\u00f1o) \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uae30\ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5,2. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc758 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \u201c\uae30\ud6c4\uc640 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uba74, \uc0dd\uc0b0\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \ub530\ub77c\uc628\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uacb0\ub860\uc9c0\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud83c\udf3e \u201c\uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\uac00 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uba74 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 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\ub0b4 \ubd80\ucc44(intraestado)\u2019\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud558\uba74,\uc544\ub974\ud5e8\ud2f0\ub098\uc758 \uc21c\ubd80\ucc44\ub294 GDP\uc758 19%\uc5d0 \ubd88\uacfc\ud558\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \u201c\uc774\ub294 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \u2018\uc0c1\uc2b5\uc801 \ucc44\ubb34\ubd88\uc774\ud589\uad6d\u2019\uc774\uc5c8\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \uc783\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\uc2e0\ub8b0\ub97c \ubb34\ub108\ub728\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370\ub294 1\ucd08, \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \ub370\ub294 \uc218\ub144\uc774 \uac78\ub9b0\ub2e4.\u201d \uadf8\ub294 \ub610 \u201c\uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc989\uc2dc \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4\u201d\uba70\uad6d\uac00\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4(riesgo pa\u00eds)\uac00 2,300\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c 620\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0,\u201c\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ud658\uc728 \uc2e4\uc218\ub97c \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uba74 500 \uc774\ud558\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.\u2e3b\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \u201c\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\uc735 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc740 \ud070 \ubc84\ud300\ubaa9\u201d \uc544\ub9ac\uc544\uc218\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504(swap)\ub3c4 \ub192\uac8c \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \u201c\uc911\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac, \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc\uc758 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504\ub294 \ud68c\uacc4\uc0c1 \uc81c\uc57d\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4.\uc774\ub294 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubb38\uc81c \ud574\uacb0, \uc678\ud658\ubcf4\uc720\uc561 \uac15\ud654, \uc2dc\uac04 \ud655\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.\uc774\ub7f0 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc740 \ub77c\ud2f4\uc544\uba54\ub9ac\uce74\uc758 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ub098\ub77c\ub3c4 \uac16\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4.\u201d\u2e3b\ud83d\udcca \u201c2026\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \ubcf8\uaca9 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